Cambuur vs Roda Prediction

Right then, Friday night in Leeuwarden and we've got a proper promotion six-pointer... well, almost. Cambuur are absolutely flying at the moment and they welcome a Roda side that's about as consistent as British weather.

Let's start with the hosts, shall we? Cambuur are sitting pretty in second spot, just two points off the top with a game in hand. And blimey, are they in form! Eight wins from their last ten, including a massive 2-1 victory away at league leaders ADO Den Haag. That wasn't a fluke either – they've beaten Willem II away (1-0), smashed MVV 4-0 at home, and ground out results against the likes of Almere (3-2) and Jong Utrecht (1-0). At home, they're winning 80% of the time, scoring 2.2 goals a game and keeping things tight at the back with just 0.8 conceded. The Leeuwarden crowd have been treated to some proper football lately.

Now Roda... where do we start? They're sixth in the table, which sounds alright on paper, but their recent form is patchy to say the least. Three wins, three draws, four losses in their last ten. They've been beaten 3-0 at home by ADO Den Haag, lost 2-0 to Jong PSV at home, and even got turned over 1-2 by FC Oss who are down in 19th! That said, they have nicked some decent away results – beating Almere 2-1 and Waalwijk 2-1 on the road – but they're leaking goals for fun. Two-point-two per game conceded recently, and 2.6 per game away from home. Their defence has more holes than a dartboard.

The head-to-head is dead even over the last nine meetings – three wins apiece and three draws – but form goes out the window when one team's this hot. Cambuur are averaging 16 shots a game with nearly 57% possession, while Roda are conceding chances left, right and centre.

Key Points:

• Cambuur have won 8 of their last 10 matches, including a statement 2-1 win away at league leaders ADO Den Haag

• Cambuur's home record is formidable: 80% win rate, scoring 2.2 goals per game and conceding just 0.8

• Roda have lost 4 of their last 10, including home defeats to bottom-half sides FC Oss and Jong PSV

• Roda concede 2.2 goals per game on average recently, rising to 2.6 per game away from home

• Despite even head-to-head history (3-3-3), current form heavily favours the hosts

The Verdict:

Look, 1.67 for a home win isn't going to buy you a yacht, but sometimes you've got to take the banker. Cambuur are playing with confidence, they've got the best home record in the division, and Roda's defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot. The value's thin, but the probability is strong. Stick it in your accumulator as the anchor.