Famalicao vs FC Porto Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Top of the table Porto rolls into town to face Famalicao, who've been proper stubborn at the back this season.

Porto are running away with it at the top - unbeaten after 10 games with 28 points. They've been banging them in too, averaging nearly two goals per game. But here's the thing - they're facing a side that's been about as easy to break down as a bank vault. Famalicao have kept seven clean sheets in their last ten games! That's some serious defending, mate.

Now, Famalicao's problem is they don't score many at home. Just 0.75 goals per game on their own patch. They've had more 0-0 draws than I've had hot dinners recently - nil-nil with Rio Ave and GIL Vicente at home. Their only decent home scoring performance was that 2-0 win over Guimaraes.

Porto's away form is proper tasty though - 71% win rate on the road and they're averaging over two goals per game away from home. They put four past Arouca and three past Rio Ave on their travels. But those teams aren't exactly defensive powerhouses, are they?

The head-to-head tells a story - Porto usually wins these, and they're usually high-scoring affairs. Eight of the nine meetings have had over 2.5 goals. But that's history, and right now, Famalicao's defense is playing at a different level.

Looking at the numbers, Famalicao have conceded just four goals in ten games. FOUR! That's mental. Porto will have their work cut out breaking them down. And with Famalicao struggling to find the net at home, I'm thinking this might not be the goal-fest the history books suggest.

Key Points:

• Famalicao have kept 7 clean sheets in last 10 games (70% rate)

• Famalicao score just 0.75 goals per home game

• Porto unbeaten in league with 28 points from 30 available

• Porto average 2.14 goals per away game

• Historical H2H shows 8/9 matches went Over 2.5 goals

• Famalicao haven't beaten Porto in 4 home attempts

The way I see it, Porto will probably win this, but at 1.62 there's not much value for your pocket. The smart money might be on this staying tight at the back. Famalicao simply don't score enough at home, and their defense has been rock solid. Both teams to score? I'm not having it.