FC Augsburg vs Bayern München Prediction

Bayern München arrive at Augsburg's ground riding a run of three consecutive wins, scoring 14 goals and conceding just one in that stretch. Over their last 10 matches across all competitions, they have won 9 and drawn 1, scoring 34 goals while keeping their opponents to 8. The away numbers tell the same story: 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 away games, with 2.65 goals scored per game and 15 of those 20 seeing both teams find the net. This is a side that scores in almost every away fixture and leaves opponents picking up the pieces.

FC Augsburg, for their part, are no shut-ins. At home over 20 games they have scored 32 goals and found the net in 17 of those 20 fixtures. In their last five matches, they have scored in every single game and both teams have found the net in four of those five. Their 4–1 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on 6 September and the 3–0 home demolition of Schalke on 30 August show they can put numbers on the board. The head-to-head at this ground, while drawn from older meetings, is telling: in all three historical fixtures here, both teams scored — 2–3, 1–3 and 2–3 — and the single recent meeting within the last 12 months, at Bayern's ground in January, also saw both sides find the net in a 2–1 Augsburg victory.

The counter-argument is real. Bayern have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, and one of those was on the road — the 0–0 at Schalke on 5 September. Augsburg's home record over 20 games includes 8 draws, and their points per game at this ground sit at 1.6, which means they are as likely to draw as to win. The market prices Bayern's win at 1.22, implying an 81.97% chance, and while the football evidence strongly favours the visitors, Augsburg's ability to score at home and the fact that both teams found the net in every meeting at this ground in the older record make a clean sheet for Bayern less certain than the short price suggests.

Key Points:

• Bayern have won 9 of their last 10 and scored 2.65 per game in their last 20 away fixtures

• Augsburg have scored in all of their last 5 matches and in 17 of their last 20 home games

• Both teams scored in all 3 historical meetings at Augsburg's ground and in the one recent meeting within 12 months

• Bayern's 3 clean sheets in 5 recent games include 2 at home; their away record shows 15 of 20 with both teams scoring

• The head-to-head at this venue is limited to older meetings; the single recent meeting was at Bayern's ground

The numbers point to a game where both boxes get ticked. I'm backing both teams to score.