FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. We've got Dortmund rolling into town to face a Augsburg side that's been about as solid as a chocolate teapot at home lately.

The league table tells a story here - Dortmund sitting pretty in 4th with 17 points, while Augsburg are down in the relegation scrap in 15th with just 7. That's a proper gap in quality, and the recent form backs it up.

Augsburg's home form is absolutely shocking, mate. They're winning just 20% of their home games and conceding a whopping 3 goals per game on their own patch. They just got absolutely hammered 0-6 by Leipzig at home - that's the sort of result that gives defenders nightmares for weeks. Before that, they managed a draw with Köln, but let's be honest, their home ground has been about as welcoming as a tax office lately.

Dortmund, on the other hand, are purring along nicely. Six wins in their last ten, and they're scoring for fun on their travels - 2.33 goals per game away from home. They only lost to Bayern recently, which is no disgrace, and they've been banging in goals in Europe too.

The head-to-head doesn't make pretty reading for Augsburg fans either - Dortmund have won 5 of the 9 meetings between these sides. And when they do meet, goals tend to flow - 6 of those 9 games have gone over 2.5 goals.

You look at the stats and it's pretty clear: Augsburg can't defend at home, Dortmund can score away from home. The goal expectancy suggests we're looking at around 4 goals in this match, and frankly, that doesn't surprise me one bit.

Dortmund might be a bit tired - they've had less rest and played more games recently - but when you're facing a defence that's shipping three goals a game at home, even a tired Dortmund side should have enough quality to find the net multiple times.

This has got goals written all over it, and at 1.50 for over 2.5, I reckon there's some value to be had here.