FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction

Right, so we've got FC Augsburg hosting Union Berlin on 24 October, and this one's got a proper story to it, bra.

Augsburg at home is a different animal. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 8 wins, 9 draws and just 3 losses, averaging 1.65 points per game. They score 1.7 a game at home and concede 1.4, with 6 clean sheets in that stretch. That's a solid record, man. Now look at Union Berlin on the road. Their last 20 away games? 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses. That's 0.95 points per game. They score 1.65 but concede 2.2, and they've only managed 1 clean sheet in 20 away trips. That away record is rough.

Union's last five games paint a grim picture: one win, one draw and three losses, with just 2 goals scored and 14 conceded. They failed to score in three of those five. The 0-7 thrashing by Bayern and the 0-4 loss to Leverkusen really sting. Even their 1-0 win over Elversberg at home felt like a relief, and the 0-0 draw with Dortmund on 17 October, while tidy, doesn't change the overall picture.

Augsburg's own form isn't pretty either — no wins in their last five, with three draws and two losses. But here's the thing: they've scored in every single one of those games, averaging 2.2 a game. They drew 2-2 with Bayern at home and 2-2 with Leverkusen. They're not winning, but they're scoring and keeping games open. Their xG for has been 2.62 per game over four matches with data, which tells you the chances are there even when the results don't show it.

The head-to-head at this venue is interesting. The most recent meeting here was a 1-1 draw in January 2026. The older meetings at this ground — Augsburg winning 2-0 in 2024 and losing 1-2 in 2025 — are just history and don't really tell you what to expect now. The reverse venue at Union's place saw a 4-0 win for Union in May 2026, but that's a different story.

The counter-argument? Augsburg haven't won in five, and the most recent H2H here was a draw. Union did keep a clean sheet against Dortmund on 17 October, and their xG against has been low at 1.02 per game over three matches with data. So there's a case for a tight, low-scoring affair. Union's away record does show 13 of their last 20 away games went over 2.5, so goals aren't out of the question.

But the numbers don't lie. Augsburg's home record is 8 wins to Union's 5 away wins, and the points-per-game gap — 1.65 to 0.95 — tells you who's got the edge. Union's away defence is leaking 2.2 a game, and Augsburg are scoring 2.2 a game in their last five. That's a lot of goals coming at Union's back line. I rate Augsburg's chance of winning here at around 55%, which sits above the market's 51.02% view on the 1.96 price. The edge is there.

Key Points:

• FC Augsburg: 8W 9D 3L in 20 home games, 1.65 pts/game, 1.7 scored per game

• Union Berlin: 5W 4D 11L in 20 away games, 0.95 pts/game, 2.2 conceded per game

• Union scored just 2 and conceded 14 in their last five matches

• Augsburg have scored in all of their last five games (2.2 per game)

• Most recent H2H at this venue: 1-1 draw (January 2026)

My pick: FC Augsburg home win at 1.96.