FC Basel 1893 vs FC Zurich Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this Swiss Super League clash. FC Basel, sitting pretty in 4th, welcome FC Zurich, who are down in 9th. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but football's never that simple, is it?

Basel's form has hit a bit of a rough patch. They've lost their last three in all competitions – 2-1 to St. Gallen in the cup, 1-2 to league leaders FC Thun, and 0-1 to Plzen in Europe. That's not the form of a confident side. Dig a little deeper and it gets worse at home: they haven't won any of their last five games at their own ground. They're scoring alright, averaging 1.6 goals a game at home, but they're shipping goals for fun – conceding 2.2 per game on average. The most damning stat? They haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last ten matches. Not one.

Zurich aren't exactly setting the world alight either. They've only won two of their last ten, and their away form reads one win, two draws, and three losses from their last six on the road. They score about 1.3 goals per away game but let in a worrying 2.3. They've managed just one clean sheet in their last ten outings. So, both teams are about as solid at the back as a chocolate teapot.

Now, here's the fun bit. These two just played each other a couple of weeks ago, on the 25th of January. What happened? An absolute barnstormer. Basel went to Zurich's place and nicked a 4-3 win. Seven goals! That tells you everything you need to know about this fixture. Historically, Basel have a poor record at home against Zurich, winning just one of the last five meetings here. But recent history suggests goals are on the menu.

When you look at the numbers, it's a no-brainer. Basel have seen both teams score in a whopping 90% of their last ten games. Zurich aren't far behind at 70%. The goal expectancy models are pointing towards nearly four goals in this one. Add in the fact Basel have had less rest and have played more games recently, and you've got a recipe for an open, end-to-end game where defending seems to be an optional extra.

Key Points:

Basel are 4th but have lost their last three matches.

Basel have NOT kept a clean sheet in their last 10 games.

Zurich have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10.

The last meeting between these sides ended 4-3 to Basel.

Both teams have scored in 90% of Basel's and 70% of Zurich's recent matches.

Basel's home form is poor (0 wins in last 5), but they usually score.

The Simple Verdict:

Forget trying to pick a winner here. Basel are favourites at 1.66, but their home form is dodgy. The value, and the obvious story, is in the goals. With both defences looking leakier than a sieve, it's hard to see either side keeping a clean sheet. The odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are sitting at a very backable 1.50. Given the stats, that looks like a bit of a gift. My maths says the real chance of both scoring is much higher than the odds suggest. So, let's keep it simple and back the goals to flow at both ends.