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Right then, folks. FC BW Linz are at home on 17 October to take on FC Liefering in the 2. Liga, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Linz have been in good shape at home, picking up 10 wins from their last 20 home games, scoring 2.35 per game and keeping it to 1.3 conceded. Their last two home results before this one were 3-0 against Admira Wacker and 4-1 against WSPG Wels — not exactly quiet affairs. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2, scoring 2.5 per game and conceding just 0.9. They haven't failed to score in any of those 10, which tells you the front end is firing. The one blemish is their most recent outing: a 1-1 draw away at SKU Amstetten on 9 October, and before that a 2-3 cup loss to Wacker Innsbruck at home. So they're not on a perfect run, but the overall picture is solid.
FC Liefering, on the other hand, have been a bit more up and down. Their last 20 away games have produced 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, with 1.5 scored per game and 1.5 conceded. They've failed to score in 7 of those 20 away trips. Their most recent game was a 3-1 home win over Sturm Graz II on 10 October, but before that they were hammered 0-4 away at Floridsdorfer AC (with a red card in the 24th minute) and lost 1-3 at home to SKN ST. Polten (another red card, 21st minute). Four red cards in their last 10 games is a worrying habit, and it's the kind of thing that can cost you a game you were winning.
Now, the head-to-head here is entirely historical — no meetings within the last 12 months. The last time these two met was back in April 2023, and before that, Linz won 4-0 and 3-0 at their own ground. But those are three and four years old, so I'd treat them as background colour rather than a trend. What matters is what both sides are doing now.
The counter-argument is that FC Liefering are not a team that sits down. They've won 6 of their last 10, scored 2.2 per game, and their last 5 games have all seen over 2.5 goals. They're not a team that plays for a draw, and if they get on the scoresheet early, Linz's defence — which has conceded in 14 of their last 20 home games — could get stretched. Plus, Linz's most recent result was a draw, so they're not untouchable.
Key Points:
- FC BW Linz have won 10 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.35 per game and conceding 1.3
- FC Liefering have failed to score in 7 of their last 20 away games and picked up 4 red cards in their last 10
- The head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings in the last 12 months
- Both teams' recent games have been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals in 4 of Linz's last 5 and all 5 of Liefering's last 5
- Linz haven't failed to score in their last 10 games across all venues
In the end, Linz look the stronger side at home and the football points that way, but the home win price doesn't offer enough value against what I'd rate their chances at, and the other markets don't sit comfortably either. No Bet.
