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Right then, let's have a proper look at this cracker! Two top teams finishing level on 65 points, but there's a right old story brewing here. FC Cincinnati are at home where they've been proper solid - conceding just 0.71 goals per game on their own patch. That's some serious defensive business, mate.
But hold your horses, because Inter Miami have been absolutely banging them in lately. We're talking 28 goals in their last 10 games - that's 2.8 per game! They've been putting four past Nashville twice and even smashed five in another match. Proper attacking firepower, no doubt about it.
Here's the thing though - when these two have met, it's been all Cincinnati. Especially at home, where they've got a 4-1-0 record against Miami. That's 80% win rate, which is proper dominant. The last meeting was a 0-0 draw back in July, but before that, Cincinnati put three past them without reply.
Cincy's recent form has been a bit up and down - they stuffed Columbus Crew 2-1 but then got hammered 4-0 by the same lot a few weeks earlier. Still, at home they're tough nuts to crack, with three clean sheets in their last 10.
The bookies have got Miami as slight favorites at 2.20, which seems a bit rich given Cincinnati's home record in this fixture. They're also expecting goals - Over 2.5 is trading at 1.36, which tells you they think we're in for a goal fest.
But looking at Cincinnati's home defensive numbers and Miami's slightly declining goal-scoring trend, I reckon we might see fewer goals than the market expects. Cincinnati know how to shut teams down at home, and with both teams being evenly matched on points, this could be a proper tactical battle rather than an open shootout.
