Some betting details are unavailable for this preview.
Right, folks, gather round for a bit of a look at this one. FC Cincinnati are at home to welcome the New England Revolution, and I've got my little puppy hat on, sniffing around for value on the underdog side of things.
The strongest case in this fixture points to the hosts. FC Cincinnati's home record over 20 games is 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 1.95 points per game and 2.75 goals scored per match. Four days ago they came away with a 3–1 win at Atlanta United, and in their last five matches they've seen over 2.5 goals in every single game. The market prices them at 2.08, which puts them at 48.08% in the bookmaker's eyes, and the numbers back that up.
Now, I'm here for the little guys, so let's see if New England Revolution offer any value at 3.30. Before their last two games, the Revolution were winning three in a row: 4–2 at home to Orlando City, 2–1 at Chicago Fire, and 2–1 at New York City FC. Their xG numbers over six recent games show 1.87 created per game and just 1.04 conceded per game, which suggests the 0–3 losses might have been more about bad luck than a team that's genuinely struggling to create chances. And in their last three away games specifically, they won two and lost one.
The counter-argument to the underdog case is straightforward. New England's last two games have been a bit of a nightmare: a 0–3 home defeat to Seattle Sounders on 10 October and a 0–3 away loss to Real Salt Lake on 27 September. That's six goals conceded and nothing scored. Their away record over 20 games tells a similar story — 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses, with just 1.35 goals per game on the road. The head-to-head at FC Cincinnati's ground is thin, with no meetings in the last 12 months and just two older games (1–0 and 1–2) giving the hosts one win and one loss.
Key Points:
- FC Cincinnati's home record: 12W 3D 5L in 20 games, 2.75 goals per game
- New England's last two games: 0–3 losses (scored 0, conceded 6)
- New England's away record: 6W 3D 11L in 20 games, 1.35 goals per game
- Both teams have had over 2.5 goals in 5/5 of their last five matches
- No recent head-to-head meetings at FC Cincinnati's ground; older games show 1W 0D 1L for the hosts
My verdict: No Bet. The Revolution are the underdog here, and I'd love to back them, but the last two 0–3 losses and the 11-loss away record make it hard to rate their chances above what the market is already pricing in. There's no value for the little puppy in this one, so I'm sitting this one out and saving my pennies for a better opportunity.