Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so here's a one that's got me leaning towards the home side, and I'll tell you why.
FC Cincinnati at home are a different animal. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 3 and lost 5, racking up 2.75 goals a game. That's a side that comes to work at their own ground and expects to get the job done. And they've just done exactly that — a 3-1 win at Atlanta United on 10 October, four days before this one. They're on a one-game winning run and the confidence is there.
Now look at New England Revolution on the road. Their last 20 away games, which stretch back 14 months, read 6 wins, 3 draws, 11 losses. They're scoring 1.35 a game on the road, which is thin. And their last two outings have been ugly — a 0-3 home loss to Seattle on 10 October and a 0-3 away loss to Real Salt Lake on 27 September. Two games, six goals conceded, zero scored. That's a side that's gone quiet and a bit rattled.
The head-to-head here is a bit thin. The two most recent meetings both took place at New England's ground — a 6-1 New England win in March and a 1-1 friendly in January. There's no recent meeting at FC Cincinnati's ground to point to, so we're leaning on the current form and the home/away records, which both tell the same story.
The counter-argument? FC Cincinnati's last five games are a bit of a mixed bag: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses. They conceded 14 in those five, including a 0-5 thrashing at Philadelphia on 9 September where they got a red card in the 16th minute. And that 6-1 New England win in March is fresh enough to make you pause. New England did win three of their last five before the two 0-3 losses, so they're not without quality — they've just gone cold in the last fortnight.
But the numbers at this specific venue — FC Cincinnati home, New England away — are hard to ignore. The home side is scoring nearly three a game and the away side is struggling to find the net. The market prices FC Cincinnati at 2.08, which implies about a 48% chance. My gut says the home side is more likely than that, given the gap between their home output and New England's road struggles.
Key Points:
- FC Cincinnati: 12W 3D 5L in 20 home games, 2.75 goals per game
- New England Revolution: 6W 3D 11L in 20 away games, 1.35 goals per game
- New England have lost their last 2 (0-3, 0-3), scoring zero
- FC Cincinnati won 3-1 at Atlanta on 10 October
- Recent head-to-head is limited; both meetings were at New England's ground
My verdict: FC Cincinnati home win.