Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got FC Dallas hosting Seattle Sounders on 15 October, and this one's got me scratching my head a bit.
On one hand, FC Dallas at home are proper solid. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 7 and lost just 2. That's 1.9 goals per game at home, and they've only failed to score in 3 of those 20. They've been reliable on their patch, and the 0-0 draw with Austin on 20 September and the 1-0 win over Los Angeles FC on 27 September show they can grind out results when it matters.
On the other hand, Seattle Sounders are flying. Four wins in their last five, 13 goals scored, and they've only conceded 5. Their last away game was a 3-0 thrashing of New England on 10 October, and before that they'd won 2-1 at home to Sporting Kansas City and 3-1 to Minnesota. The man's on a roll, and that 3-3 draw at Colorado on 20 September was the only blemish in an otherwise dominant stretch.
Now, the head-to-head at FC Dallas's ground is a bit dated. The last two meetings there went back to 2025 and 2024, with Seattle winning 0-1 and a 0-0 draw. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Seattle's ground on 26 April, where they won 2-1. So there's no recent form to lean on for this specific venue, and I'd say the head-to-head here is historical rather than a guide to what's coming.
The counter-argument is straightforward: FC Dallas's home record is 11 wins from 20, and Seattle's away record is 5 wins from 20. That's a big gap. FC Dallas score 1.9 per game at home; Seattle manage just 1.05 away. And FC Dallas just lost 2-3 at Charlotte on 10 October, which does sting a bit. Their home record says they should be favourites, and the market prices them accordingly.
But here's the thing — Seattle's current form is genuinely special. Four wins in a row, 10 goals scored, 2 conceded. That's not just a blip; it's a run that's hard to ignore. And FC Dallas, while solid at home, are not untouchable — they've lost 1 of their last 5, and that Charlotte defeat was a bit of a wake-up call. Seattle's away record is their weak spot, but the last time they travelled, they came back with 3 goals and no reply.
Key Points:
- Seattle Sounders have won their last 4 games, scoring 10 and conceding just 2
- FC Dallas's home record is 11W 7D 2L over 20 games, but they lost 2-3 at Charlotte on 10 October
- Seattle's away record over 20 games is 5W 7D 8L, which is their weak spot
- The head-to-head at FC Dallas's ground is historical only (0-1 and 0-0), with the recent meeting at Seattle's ground ending 2-1
- FC Dallas score 1.9 per game at home; Seattle score 1.05 per game away
So here's my take. The home/away records say FC Dallas should be favourites, and the market agrees. But Seattle's current form is genuinely special, and I think the market is underpricing them. At 4.2, I'd rate Seattle's chance of winning at around 30%, which is well above the 23.81% the market is implying. That's value for me.
My pick: away win.