Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got FC Dallas hosting Seattle Sounders on 15 October, and let me tell you, this one's got a nice flavour to it. The kind of match where you sit down with a cold one and actually enjoy the build-up.
FC Dallas at home are cooking, bra. Over their last 20 home games they've picked up 11 wins, 7 draws and just 2 losses, scoring 1.9 goals per game and keeping it to 1.2 conceded. That's a solid record. In their last five matches they've won three, drawn one and lost one, and the only loss was that 2-3 at Charlotte just five days ago. At home specifically, they beat LAFC 1-0, held Austin to a 0-0, and beat Portland 2-1. That's a team that knows how to grind it out on their own patch, and I respect that.
Now Seattle Sounders, they're in a bit of a different mood. Four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring 13 and conceding just 5. That 3-0 at New England five days ago was a proper statement. And they're on a four-game winning run, scoring 10 and conceding 2 in that stretch. But here's where it gets interesting: their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses. They score 1.05 per game on the road and concede 1.3. That's not the same team that's been tearing up their home ground, and the numbers don't lie.
The head-to-head is mostly historical here. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in April at Seattle's ground, where they won 2-1. At FC Dallas's ground, the older meetings show 0-1 and 0-0, so Seattle haven't had an easy time here. The H2H is dated, so I'm leaning more on the current form and the home-versus-away splits rather than treating those older results as a trend.
The counter-argument is real though. Seattle's defensive record in their latest 10 games across all venues is 1.1 conceded per game, which is better than FC Dallas's 2.0. And FC Dallas just lost their last one. You can't just dismiss a team that's won four in a row because of the away numbers. They've got momentum, and that momentum is real.
But when I look at the home record versus the away record — FC Dallas's 2 points per game at home versus Seattle's 1.1 away, and the scoring numbers — the edge sits with the home side. The market has FC Dallas at 1.94, implying about 51.55%, and I rate their chance a touch higher than that, closer to 55%. That's a small but real edge, and I'm comfortable with it.
Key Points:
- FC Dallas: 11W 7D 2L in 20 home games, 1.9 goals scored per game
- Seattle Sounders: 5W 7D 8L in 20 away games, 1.05 goals scored per game
- Seattle's current run: 4 wins in a row, but the away record tells a different story
- H2H at this venue is historical only; the only recent meeting was at Seattle's ground
- FC Dallas lost their last game (2-3 at Charlotte) but have won 3 of their last 5
My pick: FC Dallas home win at 1.94.