FC Halifax Town vs Morecambe Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this National League clash. FC Halifax Town welcome Morecambe to The Shay on Tuesday night, and on paper, it's a bit of a mismatch. Halifax are sitting pretty in 8th, while Morecambe are down in 22nd, just three points off the bottom. That tells you most of the story before we even start.

Halifax are absolutely flying at home. They haven't lost in their last seven games on their own patch, winning five and drawing two. They're scoring for fun – 2.57 goals a game at home – and they're tighter than a drum at the back, conceding just 0.57 per game. Look at their recent results: a 4-0 thumping of Braintree, a 2-1 win over Altrincham, and just last week, a solid 2-1 victory over Boston United. The only teams to beat them lately are the big boys like Forest Green and Boreham Wood, who are right at the top. Against the sides around them, Halifax are taking care of business.

Morecambe, on the other hand, are having a right old struggle. Their last ten games have brought just three wins, and those were against Brackley Town (twice) and Gateshead – two teams propping up the table. When they've faced anyone with a bit of quality, like Carlisle or Rochdale, they've come up short. Their away form is patchy at best: two wins in their last five on the road, but those wins were against the strugglers I mentioned. They're conceding 1.60 goals a game away from home, which is a recipe for disaster coming up against this Halifax attack.

The head-to-head is a funny one – only two games from back in 2018 – but Halifax did the double, winning 1-0 at home and drawing 0-0 away. Morecambe have never scored against them. Now, that's ancient history, but it adds a little psychological nugget.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Halifax at 1.67 to win. That means they think there's about a 60% chance of a home win. I reckon that's selling Halifax short. With their home fortress and Morecambe's woes on the road, I'd put the chance closer to 70%. That's a nice bit of value for your money.

The over 2.5 goals is also tempting at 1.67, given Halifax's goal output. But Halifax keep so many clean sheets – five in their last ten – that I'm less convinced both teams will score. Morecambe might nick one, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Key Points:

Halifax are unbeaten in their last seven home games (W5 D2).

They score an average of 2.57 goals per game at The Shay.

Morecambe have lost three of their last five away matches.

Morecambe concede 1.60 goals per game on their travels.

Halifax have won 71.43% of their recent home fixtures.

The only recent meetings (2018) saw Halifax win 1-0 at home.

All signs point to a comfortable home win. The value is with backing Halifax at a decent price. Get on it.