Preview
FC OSS have been in prolific form at home, and Jong Ajax's away record suggests this fixture will produce goals. The numbers tell a clear story, and I only pick when the evidence is unambiguous.
FC OSS's home record over 20 games, from 21 November 2025 to 9 October 2026, shows 17 of those 20 matches finished with three or more goals. They score 1.9 per game at home and concede 1.6. In their last three home fixtures โ 3โ1 against Helmond Sport on 9 October, 4โ1 against MVV on 3 October, and 3โ0 against Dordrecht on 18 September โ they scored 10 goals and cleared the 2.5 line in all three. Their last five matches overall have seen over 2.5 goals in four of five.
Jong Ajax's away record over 20 games, spanning 10 months from 21 October 2025 to 14 September 2026, has 13 of 20 going over 2.5 goals. They concede 2.2 per game on the road and score 1.05. Their last five matches have seen over 2.5 in three of five, and their last 10 in six of 10. The xG data from their recent six matches shows 2.06 expected goals against per game, which tracks with their actual 2.4 goals conceded per game over the last five.
The head-to-head at this venue has no meetings in the last 12 months. The most recent meeting โ FC OSS's 2โ1 away win at Jong Ajax on 13 April 2026 โ is the only recent data point. The older meetings at FC OSS's ground (2โ1, 2โ1, 1โ1) are historical and do not carry the same weight.
The counter-argument is straightforward: FC OSS lost their most recent match, 1โ2 at Den Bosch on 16 October, and their home record of 9 wins, 1 draw and 10 losses in 20 games means they lose half their home fixtures. Jong Ajax's last game was a 2โ1 win at home against De Graafschap on 19 October, and they have not lost in their last match. The 0โ0 draw at home against Roda on 18 September also suggests they can go quiet.
Key Points:
- FC OSS have had over 2.5 goals in 17 of their last 20 home games
- Jong Ajax have had over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 20 away games
- FC OSS scored 10 goals in their last three home matches
- Jong Ajax concede 2.2 per game on the road
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (13 April 2026) finished 2โ1
The evidence points to goals. I'm recommending over 2.5 goals at 1.45.
