FC Schalke 04 vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. FC Schalke 04 are sitting pretty at the top of the 2. Bundesliga, but they've hit a bit of a wobble lately. Meanwhile, Dynamo Dresden are down in 16th but have been picking up results like there's no tomorrow. It's a classic case of the table telling one story and the recent form telling another.

Schalke's last four league games have yielded just two points – a couple of draws against Hertha BSC and Kaiserslautern, and losses to Bochum and Eintracht Braunschweig. They're still scoring at a decent clip at home (1.67 goals per game in their last three) and are solid at the back, keeping clean sheets in half of their last ten outings. But that spark seems to have dimmed a bit.

Dresden, on the other hand, are flying. Six wins from their last ten, including away victories at Magdeburg and Bochum. They're scoring nearly two goals a game on average and are involved in proper, end-to-end stuff – both teams have scored in 80% of their matches. They concede a fair few as well (1.4 per game), but they always fancy their chances of outscoring you.

The head-to-head makes for grim reading if you're a Dresden fan. Schalke have won three of the last four meetings, including a 1-0 win back in August. At home, Schalke have a perfect record against Dresden.

So, what's the play? Schalke are the league leaders for a reason. Their home form is strong (winning two-thirds of their recent home games), and they have that psychological edge. Dresden are in great nick, but their wins have come against sides in the bottom half. Going to the league leaders' backyard is a different kettle of fish.

The maths says Schalke should win this more often than not. The odds of 1.77 imply they've got about a 56% chance. I reckon it's closer to 60%. They'll be desperate to stop the rot and reassert their authority at the top. Dresden will make a game of it – they always do – and might even score, but Schalke's quality should shine through in the end.

Key Points:

Schalke are top but have taken just 2 points from their last 12.

Dresden have won 6 of their last 10 and score almost 2 goals per game.

Schalke have won 3 of the last 4 H2H meetings, including the reverse fixture 1-0.

Schalke keep it tight (5 clean sheets in last 10).

• Dresden's games are open (BTTS in 80% of last 10).

The Simple Tip: The value lies with the home side. Back Schalke to get back to winning ways and cement their place at the summit.