Preview
Right, so we've got FC Schalke 04 hosting RB Leipzig at home on 31 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.
Let's start with the most telling bit. Over their recent games with xG data, RB Leipzig have been creating 2.2 expected goals per game, while FC Schalke 04 are managing just 0.72. That's a gap that's hard to ignore. Leipzig have actually scored 15 goals in those six matches, and they've found the net in every single one of their last five — not one blank. Their current run is two wins, scoring six and conceding just one. The goal machine is well and truly switched on.
Now look at Schalke's side of the ledger. In their last five, they've won one, drawn one and lost three. They've scored just two goals in that stretch and failed to score in three of those five. Their xG against is 1.65 per game, which means they're being exposed. Two weeks ago they lost 0–1 at home to FSV Mainz 05, and three days before kickoff they were beaten 2–0 away by Dynamo Dresden in the DFB Pokal. The form is not good, and the current run has them losing their last game, scoring zero and conceding two.
The head-to-head is worth a mention, though I'll be upfront — every meeting on record is historical, stretching back three to six years. In those five most recent meetings, RB Leipzig won all five, including three at Schalke's ground with scores of 1–6, 0–3 and 0–5. The full aggregate across 12 meetings shows Leipzig winning 8, drawing 2 and losing 2. So the pattern is there, but I'd be foolish to treat a 2023 result as a blueprint for 2026. The head-to-head is dated, and I'm leaning on current form instead.
Here's the counter-argument, and it's a fair one. RB Leipzig's away record over the last 20 away games is 7 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses. That's not a team that travels well on the numbers. And Schalke's home record over 20 home games is 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 10 clean sheets in that stretch. If you just looked at those two lines in isolation, you'd think the home side had a decent chance. But the recent form tells a very different story — Schalke's last home game was that 0–1 loss to Mainz, and their xG numbers suggest they're not creating enough to win. Leipzig's recent losses to Real Madrid (1–4) and Bayern München (1–6) were against top opposition, and their last two results — a 2–1 away win and a 4–0 home win — show the side that's actually in form.
The market has RB Leipzig as favourites at 1.92, which carries a bookmaker-implied probability of 52.08%. My own read, factoring in the xG gap, Leipzig's scoring consistency and Schalke's recent struggles, puts Leipzig's chance of winning at roughly 54%. That's a slight edge over the market's view, and it's the kind of value I like to find.
Key Points:
- RB Leipzig have scored in all their last 5 matches and are creating 2.2 xG per game
- FC Schalke 04 have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring only 2 goals
- The head-to-head is heavily in Leipzig's favour but all meetings are 3+ years old
- Leipzig's away record (7W 1D 12L in 20 games) is a genuine concern
- Schalke's home record (12W 5D 3L in 20 games) is solid but recent form is poor
Verdict: I'm going with the RB Leipzig away win.
