FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC Prediction

Right, folks, The Big O is in the building and I'm itching for goals. FC St. Pauli host Karlsruher SC on 11 October in the 2. Bundesliga, and let me tell you — this one has the smell of a good scoring affair about it.

Karlsruher SC's away record over the last 20 games is a goal-fest: 16 of those 20 went over 2.5 goals. Their last five matches produced over 2.5 in four of five, and they've conceded 2.4 goals per game across that stretch. At home or away, KSC have not kept a clean sheet in their last five. Their away record over 20 games sees them conceding 2.1 per game and scoring 1.3. That's a team that's leaking goals like a sieve, and I love it.

St. Pauli at home have seen both teams score in 13 of their last 20 home games, and in their last five matches, both sides have found the net in four of five. They've scored in every one of those five. The head-to-head is dated — no meetings within the last 12 months — but when they did meet at St. Pauli's ground historically, the scores were 6–1, 2–1 and 1–1. Two of those three went over 2.5.

Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be honest: St. Pauli's recent form is a bit of a goal drought. Their last five matches saw over 2.5 in only two of five, and their home record over 20 games is 11 over, 9 under. They've drawn three of their last five, and the current run is two draws. That's not the kind of fireworks I'm looking for, and it tempers my enthusiasm considerably.

The xG numbers from August add a little spice: St. Pauli's xG against was 1.45 per game over three matches. KSC's xG for was 1.25 per game. But three games is a small number of matches, and I won't build a house on it.

Key Points:

• Karlsruher SC's away record: 16 of 20 games over 2.5 goals, 4 of last 5 over

• St. Pauli home: 13 of 20 BTTS yes, 4 of last 5 BTTS yes

• St. Pauli's last 5: only 2 of 5 over 2.5, three draws in that stretch

• Head-to-head is historical (no meetings in 12 months); at St. Pauli's ground, 2 of 3 went over 2.5

• KSC have not kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches

The Big O's verdict: I want this to be a goal-fest, and the evidence points that way. But at 1.47 for over 2.5 and 1.47 for both teams to score, the market is pricing these at 68.03% — and my own read, factoring in St. Pauli's recent under-heavy home form and their string of draws, sits below that. The price simply isn't there for me. No bet.