FC Winterthur vs Servette FC Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint because this Swiss Super League clash has got 'goals' written all over it – and I’m not talking about the nice, defensive kind neither.

Winterthur are rooted to the bottom of the table with a measly 14 points from 26 games, and looking at their recent form, it’s not hard to see why. They’ve lost eight of their last ten matches, shipping a whopping 30 goals in the process. That’s three goals a game they’re leaking, mate! They took a proper pasting off Young Boys (6-1), got thumped 5-1 by St Gallen, and even Zurich put three past them without reply. The only bright spot was a 2-1 win against Lausanne back in January, but since then it’s been back to the bread and butter of getting battered.

Now Servette FC, sitting in 10th, aren’t exactly setting the world alight either. They’ve only won one of their last ten, drawing six of them – they’re the draw specialists of the division, can’t seem to turn those stalemates into three points. But here’s the thing: they can score goals, especially away from home. They’re banging in 2.25 goals per game on their travels, including that mad 4-2 win at second-placed St Gallen in January. They’ve only failed to score in one of their last ten outings.

When these two met back in November, Servette ran out 4-2 winners, and given Winterthur are conceding 2.6 goals a game at home while Servette are netting over two away, you’d fancy more of the same. The goal expectancy numbers have this down for nearly four goals (3.92 to be precise), and with Winterthur’s defence about as solid as a chocolate teapot, I’m expecting nets to bulge.

The bookies have Over 2.5 Goals at 1.40, which is short but fair given the data. Winterthur’s games have seen over 2.5 land in eight of their last ten, and with Servette’s attack against this backline, it’s hard to see how this stays tight.

Key Points:

• Winterthur have conceded 30 goals in their last 10 games (3.0 per game average)

• Servette are scoring 2.25 goals per game away from home

• The reverse fixture in November finished 4-2 to Servette

• Goal expectancy suggests 3.92 total goals expected

• Winterthur have kept zero clean sheets in their last 10 matches

Summary:

Winterthur’s defence is shambolic, Servette can score but can’t defend either. At 1.40, Over 2.5 Goals is the play – it’s short, but it’s sweet. Expect a few goals in this one.