FC St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this basement battle at the bottom of the Bundesliga! St. Pauli are rock bottom in 16th with just 7 points from 10 games, and frankly, they've been absolutely shocking lately. Lost their last 5 Bundesliga games on the spin, including a 0-4 hammering at home to Gladbach and a 2-1 loss to Freiburg in their last outing. They're scoring just 0.7 goals per game while shipping 1.8 - at home it's even worse with 2.2 goals conceded per game. Not exactly fortress stuff, is it?

Union Berlin aren't exactly setting the world alight either, sitting 11th with 12 points, but they've shown a bit more backbone recently. Three draws on the bounce, including a cracking 2-2 with Bayern Munich, shows they can mix it with the big boys. They're scoring a few more (1.2 per game) and have looked more solid overall. But here's the kicker - their away form is shocking too! Losing 75% of their away games and letting in 2.25 goals per game on their travels.

Head-to-head, Union have the wood over St. Pauli big time - 7 wins to 2 in 9 meetings. Last time out, Union gave them a 3-0 spanking, though interestingly at St. Pauli's patch, it's been a bit more even with a 2-2 record.

Both teams are leaking goals like there's no tomorrow, and neither can score for toffee. St. Pauli have kept just 1 clean sheet in 10 games, Union only 2. This has got 1-1 or 2-1 written all over it, but I'm leaning towards the visitors based on that slightly better recent form and their ability to compete with top sides.

Key Points:

• St. Pauli have lost 5 straight Bundesliga games

• Union Berlin are unbeaten in their last 3 matches (all draws)

• Union dominate the head-to-head with 7 wins from 9 meetings

• Both teams have terrible defensive records

• Union's away form is poor but they showed quality against Bayern

The Verdict: Union Berlin should edge this one. St. Pauli are in proper crisis mode at home, and Union have shown enough grit lately to nick this. The 3.00 odds for an away win look decent value to me.