Preview
PajimonFenerbahçe are in the sort of form that makes you want to crack open a cold one and just watch them dismantle another team. Three wins in a row, 13 goals scored, and not a single goal conceded. That 8-0 thrashing of Eyüpspor at home on 20 September was a statement, and the 3-0 away at Rizespor on 10 October kept the party going. Their xG against sits at just 0.9 per game over the last five matches with data, and they've kept four clean sheets in those five. At home over 20 games, Fenerbahçe have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 3, averaging 2.3 goals per game. That is a record that speaks for itself.
Alanyaspor, on the other hand, are struggling to find their rhythm. Their last five games produced 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. The 0-0 draw at home against Erzurumspor on 10 October was a reminder that their attack is flat. Over 20 away games, they've managed 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses, averaging 1.35 goals per game. Their xG for is 1.18 per game across 10 matches with data, which tells you they're not creating much. The matchup table puts Fenerbahçe's home points per game at 1.95 to Alanyaspor's 1.35 on the road, and the scoring gap is 2.3 to 1.35 per game.
The head-to-head here is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 18 January 2026 at Alanyaspor's ground, where Fenerbahçe won 3-2. At Fenerbahçe's ground, the older record shows 3 meetings: 1 win and 2 draws, no losses. So the visitors have never beaten Fenerbahçe at this venue in the meetings we have on record.
Now, the counter-argument. Fenerbahçe's last two games before the 8-0 were a 0-0 away draw at Gaziantep FK on 14 September and a 1-1 with AS Roma in the Champions League on 10 September. Not every game is an 8-0. And Alanyaspor have won away at both Çorum FK on 19 September and Rizespor on 7 September in recent weeks, so they're not completely toothless on the road. The 0-0 on 10 October also means Alanyaspor haven't scored, which could point to a tight, low-scoring affair rather than a rout.
But the weight of evidence is heavily on Fenerbahçe's side. The form gap is real, the home record is strong, and the visitors' attack has been quiet. I rate the Fenerbahçe win at around 78%, which sits just above the market's 75.19% implied probability. The numbers back it up, and the form backs it up. This is a meaty one, no vegetables in sight.
Key Points:
- Fenerbahçe have won their last 3 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 0
- Alanyaspor's away record over 20 games: 6W 9D 5L, 1.35 goals per game
- Fenerbahçe's home record: 11W 6D 3L in 20 games, 2.3 goals per game
- Alanyaspor scored 0 in their last match (0-0 vs Erzurumspor on 10 October)
- H2H at Fenerbahçe's ground: 1W 2D 0L in 3 historical meetings
My pick: Fenerbahçe home win.