Preview
Mr SimpleFenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor, Süper Lig, 17 October 2026.
Right, let's get into it. Fenerbahçe are flying at the moment, and when they're at home, things get a bit more serious. Look at the last three games: 3-0 at Rizespor, 2-0 at Turan, and an absolute hammering 8-0 against Eyüpspor at home. Thirteen goals scored, not a single one conceded. That's not just good form, that's a team that's found its rhythm and it's a rhythm that's hard to stop.
Their home record over the last 20 games tells the same story. Eleven wins, six draws, three losses. They're averaging 2.3 goals a game at home and keeping it to 1.15 conceded. That's a solid, reliable home base. And when you stack that up against Alanyaspor's away record — six wins, nine draws, five losses in 20 games, averaging 1.35 scored and 1.1 conceded — the gap is clear. Fenerbahçe are the better side at this end of the ground.
Now, Alanyaspor aren't without a pulse. They've won two of their last five, including a 2-1 at Çorum FK and a 1-0 at Rizespor. But the most recent one was a 0-0 draw at home against Erzurumspor, and that's the pattern that keeps creeping in. Nine draws in 20 away games is a lot of stalemates. They score 1.35 a game on the road, which is fine, but they're not the kind of side that's going to come here and put Fenerbahçe to the sword.
The head-to-head is a bit thin on recent meetings. The only one within the last 12 months was back in January at Alanyaspor's ground, and Fenerbahçe won 3-2. At Fenerbahçe's ground, the older meetings show one win and two draws, but those are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now. What matters is the current form, and that's heavily in Fenerbahçe's favour.
The counter-argument? Well, Fenerbahçe did draw 0-0 at Gaziantep on 14 September and 1-1 at home against Roma on 10 September. So they're not invincible. And Alanyaspor have shown they can grind out results away — that 1-0 at Rizespor was a tight one. But when you look at the xG numbers, Fenerbahçe are creating 2.25 chances a game while Alanyaspor are managing 1.18. That's a big difference in chance creation, and it's hard to ignore.
Key Points:
- Fenerbahçe won their last three games, scoring 13 and conceding nothing
- Home record: 11W 6D 3L in 20 games, averaging 2.3 goals per game
- Alanyaspor's away record: 6W 9D 5L in 20 games, with nine draws
- Only recent H2H meeting (January 2026) saw Fenerbahçe win 3-2
- Fenerbahçe's xG for is 2.25 per game vs Alanyaspor's 1.18
Verdict: I'm going with the Fenerbahçe home win. The form, the home record, and the difference in attacking output all point the same way. At 1.33, the market has them at 75.19%, and I'd put their chance a touch higher than that. It's not a huge price, but the evidence is there.