Preview
The Big "O"The Big O here, and I'm telling you, this one's got the smell of goals all over it. Fenerbahçe at home against Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig, and if you're looking for a nil-nil to put your feet up to, this isn't it.
Let's start with the numbers that make my eyes light up. Fenerbahçe's home record over the last 20 games tells a story of a team that scores: 2.3 goals per game at home, and 13 of those 20 meetings saw both teams find the net. Alanyaspor on the road? They've scored 1.35 per game away and 12 of their last 20 away fixtures ended with both sides on the scoresheet. Stack those two records together and you've got a fixture where the combined scoring output is hard to ignore.
The head-to-head at this venue is worth a look. The three older meetings here produced 2–2, 3–0, and 2–2 — two of the three saw both teams score. And the most recent meeting on 18 January 2026, at Alanyaspor's ground, was a 2–3 affair with five goals. Across those four meetings, three ended with both sides on the scoresheet. It's a nice reminder of the scoring in these meetings.
Fenerbahçe's current form is electric. They've won their last three, scoring 13 goals and conceding none. The 8–0 demolition of Eyüpspor on 20 September and the 3–0 away at Rizespor on 10 October show a side with a serious edge. Their xG for over the last five games with data sits at 2.25 per game.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Fenerbahçe's last five matches saw only one game where both teams scored — four of five were BTTS no. Their current run of three wins came with clean sheets, and Alanyaspor's most recent outing was a 0–0 draw at home on 10 October. Alanyaspor's away record is a bit softer: 6 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses in 20 games, with 1.35 goals per game. They're not a team that lights up on the road. And Fenerbahçe's last 10 games split evenly on over/under 2.5 — five over, five under.
So here's where I land. The venue record, the head-to-head meetings, and the combined scoring output all point toward goals. Fenerbahçe's recent clean-sheet run is a blip, not a trend — their home record over 20 games says both teams score in 13 of 20. Alanyaspor's last five had three BTTS yes, and their away record supports it at 12 of 20. I rate the chance of both teams scoring at around 56%, which sits above the market's 51.81% implied probability on the 1.93 price. There's value here for the patient punter who likes their football with a bit of spice.
Key Points:
- Fenerbahçe's home record: 13 of 20 games saw both teams score; 2.3 goals per game at home
- Alanyaspor's away record: 12 of 20 games saw both teams score; 1.35 goals per game away
- Head-to-head at this venue: 2 of 3 older meetings ended with both sides on the scoresheet
- Fenerbahçe's last 5: only 1 BTTS yes, with 3 consecutive clean sheets — the main counter
- Alanyaspor's last 5: 3 of 5 games saw both teams score
My pick: both teams to score.