Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Feyenoord's home numbers are the first thing that catches my eye in this fixture. Across their last 20 home games, Feyenoord have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 3, averaging 2.45 goals per game while conceding 1.35. That is a record that does not need embellishment, and it sets the tone for what to expect on 10 October.

The form heading into this match is equally compelling. Feyenoord have won their last two matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding none — a 5–0 win over Utrecht at home on 20 September and a 7–0 away victory over PEC Zwolle on 13 September. The 1–5 Champions League defeat to Barcelona on 9 September is a blemish, but it came in a different competition, and the domestic numbers tell a very different story. In their last 5 games across all venues, Feyenoord have scored 3.6 per game and failed to score in none of them.

AZ Alkmaar travel with a less comfortable away record. Their last 20 games on the road produce 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, with 1.65 goals scored per game. Their most recent away outing was a 0–1 defeat to Sunderland in the Europa League on 16 September, and before that a 3–2 win at Heerenveen on 6 September. Their last 5 matches overall show 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, but the away sample is where the cracks show — 8 of those 20 road games ended in defeat.

The head-to-head at this venue is thin on recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–1 draw on 10 May 2026. The older meetings at Feyenoord's ground — 3–2 and 2–0, both Feyenoord wins — are historical record, not current form, but they do show Feyenoord winning both of those older meetings at home.

The counter-argument is that AZ Alkmaar are not without quality. Their last 10 games across all venues show 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.5 goals scored per game and just 0.9 conceded. Their xG figures over 6 recent games show 2.31 per game for and 1.4 against, suggesting they are creating and defending at a reasonable level. The 1–1 draw in May also reminds us that AZ can frustrate Feyenoord at this ground, and their 5–2 win over GO Ahead Eagles on 29 August showed they can score in bulk when the defence opens up.

Key Points:

• Feyenoord's home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.45 goals per game

• AZ Alkmaar's away record: 9W 3D 8L in 20 games, 8 losses

• Feyenoord's last 2 games: 12 goals scored, 0 conceded

• AZ Alkmaar's last away game: 0–1 loss to Sunderland (16 September)

• Only 1 recent H2H meeting at this venue: 1–1 draw (10 May 2026)

The numbers point to Feyenoord, and the market's 54.05% implied probability on the home win at 1.85 sits below what the evidence supports. I'm backing the home win.