Preview
Value VinnyStevenage have arrived at this fixture in strong recent form. Four wins from their last five matches, with 15 goals scored and just 5 conceded, tells you everything about a side that is scoring at three per game and conceding at one. Their current run of two wins has seen them score 8 and concede 2, and the home record underpins that momentum: 13 wins from 20 home games, 2.05 points per game, and a defence that has kept 9 clean sheets in that span.
The opposition's numbers paint a very different picture. Wigan's away record over 20 games is 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses — 0.8 points per game. They have failed to score in 10 of those 20 away outings and conceded 1.7 per game. Their last five matches overall show 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 8 goals conceded. The 3–2 win over Blackpool two weeks ago is a positive note, but it came at home.
The head-to-head at Stevenage's ground adds a layer of context. In the recent meeting within the last 12 months, Stevenage won 1–0 in May 2026. The reverse fixture at Wigan's ground ended 0–0. The older meetings — a 1–2 loss for Stevenage in January 2025 and a 2–3 Stevenage win at Wigan in January 2024 — are historical record and do not carry the same weight as current form.
The counter-argument is straightforward. Stevenage did lose to Leyton Orient 0–1 three weeks ago, and the head-to-head is not a one-sided story — one win and one draw in the recent meetings. Wigan's away record does include 7 draws, meaning they do find a way to get a result on the road. And Stevenage's home scoring, while strong in form, averages 1.15 per game over 20 home fixtures, which is not the same as the 3-per-game figure from the last five.
Key Points:
- Stevenage: 4W 1L in last 5, scoring 3 per game, won last 2
- Stevenage home: 13W 2D 5L in 20 games, 2.05 ppg
- Wigan away: 3W 7D 10L in 20 games, 0.8 ppg, failed to score in 10/20
- H2H at Stevenage (recent): 1–0 Stevenage win
- Wigan's last 5: 2W 1D 2L, 8 conceded
The numbers point one way, and the price at 2.2 for a Stevenage win sits well below what the evidence supports. I rate Stevenage's chance of winning this at around 55%, which is a clear step above the market's 45.45% implied figure. That gap is the kind of value I live for. Verdict: Stevenage home win.