Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Fiorentina hosting Como on 18 October, and if you've been watching these two, you'll know this is the sort of game where the goals come in pairs.
Let's start with the scoring. At their ground, Fiorentina have had both teams score in 11 of their last 20 home games, and Como on the road have seen both sides find the net in 14 of their last 20 away outings. That's a lot of goals on both ends. Look at the last five for each side: Fiorentina had both teams score in 4 of 5, and Como in 3 of 5. Stretch it out to ten games and it's 7 out of 10 for both clubs. The head-to-head backs it up too — three of the last five meetings between these two saw both teams cross the line. The market prices both teams to score at 1.57, which tells you they expect an open game.
Now, the counter-argument is there. Como drew 0-0 with Roma just seven days ago, and they went blank against Frosinone four weeks back. Fiorentina kept a clean sheet against Pisa in the Coppa Italia. So there's a thread of quiet games in both teams' recent history. But the overall picture — 70% of Como's away games and 55% of Fiorentina's home games produce both teams scoring — is hard to ignore.
The form picture is interesting too. Both sides are in a bit of a tussle. Fiorentina are 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in their last five, and Como are the same. Fiorentina lost 1-2 at Genoa eight days ago; Como lost 2-3 at Feyenoord in the Champions League four days ago. Neither team is flying, but neither is in the doldrums either.
The head-to-head is a bit of a tale of two halves. In the last 12 months, they've met twice: Fiorentina won 2-1 at Como's ground in February, and Como won 3-1 at Fiorentina's ground in January. So at this venue, the last time they met, Fiorentina lost 1-3. That's a sting, but it's one game. The older meetings — going back 13 to 23 months — are historical record and don't really tell you what's happening now.
In the matchup numbers, Como's away record edges Fiorentina's home record on wins (9 to 8 in 20 games) and points per game (1.65 to 1.6). Como also score more per game on the road (1.65) than Fiorentina do at home (1.5), though Fiorentina concede less at home (1.05) than Como do away (1.2). But Fiorentina keep more clean sheets at home (7 out of 20) than Como do away (4 out of 20).
Key Points:
- Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 10 games each
- Como's away record: 14 of 20 games saw both teams score; Fiorentina's home record: 11 of 20
- H2H: 3 of the last 5 meetings between these sides had both teams crossing the line
- Both teams are in similar recent form: 2W 1D 2L in their last five
- The 0-0 draw with Roma and the 0-2 loss to Frosinone show Como can go quiet, but it's the exception, not the rule
My pick: both teams to score.