Fiorentina vs Udinese Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. We've got Fiorentina, rock bottom of Serie A with a grand total of zero wins all season. Let that sink in. Not one. Meanwhile, Udinese are sitting pretty in 10th, having just pulled off a proper shock by beating Napoli 1-0 last time out. It's a classic tale of the strugglers versus the steady-eddies.

Fiorentina's form is, to put it politely, a bit of a mess. One win in their last ten games, and that was in Europe. In the league, they've been losing to everyone – from Juventus (a decent draw, that) to Lecce and Verona at home. That's the real worry. If you can't beat the teams around you at your own gaff, where are the points coming from? They're scoring less than a goal a game at home and conceding more than one. It's a recipe for the drop.

Udinese are a funny old side. At home, they're giants – just ask Napoli. On the road, it's a different story. They've lost three of their last four away trips, including at Genoa. But here's the thing: they're playing the worst team in the league. Their last away win was at Parma, who are also down there. This might just be the perfect chance for them to bag three points on their travels.

The head-to-head is as even as it gets – four wins apiece from the last nine. The last meeting was a proper ding-dong, a 3-2 win for Fiorentina back in May. But that feels like a lifetime ago given how things have gone south for the Viola since.

When you crunch the numbers, a few things stand out. Fiorentina have more of the ball (54% on average) and take more shots, but they can't finish their dinner. Udinese are more clinical when they get a chance. But crucially, neither side is exactly free-scoring. Fiorentina average 0.8 goals a game at home. Udinese average a measly 0.75 on the road. Add it up, and you're looking at 1.55 goals on average. That screams a low-scoring affair to me.

Key Points:

Form Chasm: Fiorentina are winless in 15 Serie A games. Udinese just beat 3rd-placed Napoli.

Home Woes: Fiorentina have lost 3 of their last 5 at home in all comps, including to Lecce and Verona.

Away Jitters: Udinese have lost 3 of their last 4 away, but their sole win was against a fellow struggler (Parma).

Goal Drought: Combined home/away scoring averages suggest a 1-0 or 1-1 type of game.

• Head-to-Head: Historically tight, but Fiorentina's current plight overshadows past results.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have the away win at a tasty 3.40, which is tempting. But my maths says the value, and the smarter play, is in the goals market. With two attack-shy sides coming together – one terrified of losing, the other inconsistent on the road – I can't see this being a goal-fest. The odds for Under 2.5 Goals are 1.73, and I reckon that's where the value lies.