First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten Prediction

First Vienna arrive at this 2. Liga fixture on 9 October carrying the kind of momentum that makes bookmakers sweat. Their last 10 games across all venues read 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 21 goals scored at 2.1 per game and just 10 conceded. At home over 20 games, First Vienna have won 9, drawn 5 and lost 6, averaging 1.5 goals per game and 1.25 conceded. The numbers paint a side that is comfortable on this ground and dangerous in front of goal.

SKN ST. Polten, by contrast, travel with a much thinner record. Their last 10 games across all venues show 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, with just 8 goals scored at 0.8 per game and 13 conceded. On the road over the last 20 away games, they have won 9, drawn 3 and lost 8, scoring 1.6 per game but conceding 1.4. More telling: they have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 matches, and their away clean-sheet record is just 4 in 20. This is a side that struggles to find the net when it matters most.

The head-to-head at this venue adds weight to the home side's case. In February 2026, First Vienna beat SKN ST. Polten 2–1 on this ground. The older meetings here — a 2–1 and a 7–3 — are historical and don't carry the same weight, but they do show a pattern of First Vienna controlling this fixture. There has been no meeting at SKN ST. Polten's ground within the last 12 months, so the balance of recent evidence tilts toward the hosts.

The counter-argument is straightforward: SKN ST. Polten have won their last two games, scoring 5 and conceding 2, and they beat FC Liefering 3–1 on the road three weeks ago. First Vienna, meanwhile, dropped their most recent match — a 1–2 friendly loss at Lask Linz seven days before kickoff. That's a small dent in the narrative, but it was a friendly, and the underlying form over the last 10 games is far more telling than one warm-up result.

Key Points:

• First Vienna: 7W 1D 2L in last 10, 2.1 goals scored per game, 0/10 failed to score

• SKN ST. Polten: 3W 1D 6L in last 10, 0.8 goals scored per game, 5/10 failed to score

• H2H at this venue (Feb 2026): First Vienna won 2–1

• SKN ST. Polten's away record: 9W 3D 8L in 20, 4/20 clean sheets

• First Vienna's only recent blemish: a 1–2 friendly loss 7 days ago

The market prices First Vienna's win at 1.95, implying a 51.28% chance. My read of the form, the venue record and the head-to-head puts the hosts' probability closer to 58%. That gap between what the numbers tell me and what the bookmaker is offering is where the value lives. The price is correct in direction but not in magnitude — the hosts are better than the odds suggest.

Verdict: First Vienna home win at 1.95.