First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten Prediction

First Vienna arrive at this 2. Liga fixture on 9 October carrying the kind of scoring numbers that make a cautious analyst sit up and take notice. In their last five matches, they have scored 11 goals at a rate of 2.2 per game while conceding just 3. Stretch that window to ten games and the picture holds: 21 goals scored, 10 conceded, and not a single match in which they failed to find the net. The 4–0 away win over Austria Salzburg in the Cup and the 3–1 at WSPG Wels underline that this is not a one-off surge. Yes, the most recent result was a 1–2 defeat at Lask Linz on 2 October, but that is one blemish in an otherwise dominant run of 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses across the last ten.

The head-to-head at this ground tells a consistent story. The one meeting within the last 12 months, on 20 February 2026, ended 2–1 in First Vienna's favour. The two older meetings at the same venue — a 2–1 and a 7–3 — are part of the longer record at this ground. Across the full 18-meeting record between these two sides, 14 of those games produced more than two goals. That is a 78% over 2.5 rate, and it is the single most telling figure in this fixture. SKN ST. Polten's own away record over 20 games supports the same reading: 14 of those 20 away matches went over 2.5 goals, and they average 1.6 goals per game on the road.

The counter-argument is not nothing. SKN ST. Polten's last ten games have seen only 4 of 10 go over 2.5, and their last five matches split 3 over and 2 under. First Vienna's home record over 20 games is exactly 10 over and 10 under, which is a coin-flip rather than a trend. SKN ST. Polten are also on a two-game winning run, having beaten Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 2–1 at home on 19 September and FC Liefering 3–1 away on 13 September. Their away record over 20 games does include 9 wins, so they are capable of turning up and taking points. The most recent head-to-head was a 2–1, which is only three goals, and the historical 3–3 at SKN ST. Polten's ground shows these sides can produce draws.

But the weight of evidence leans heavily one way. First Vienna's scoring output is exceptional by any measure, the head-to-head at this venue has never produced an under 2.5 result in the three meetings listed, and the full 18-game record between these sides has gone over 2.5 in 14 of 18. SKN ST. Polten's away scoring of 1.6 per game, combined with First Vienna's 2.2 per game in recent form, makes a low-scoring outcome the outlier rather than the expectation.

Key Points:

• First Vienna have scored in all of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals per game.

• The head-to-head at First Vienna's ground has produced 3 goals or more in all 3 meetings listed (2–1, 2–1, 7–3).

• 14 of the 18 total meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals.

• SKN ST. Polten's away record over 20 games has seen 14 of 20 matches finish with more than two goals.

• The main caution: SKN ST. Polten's last 10 games have only 4 over 2.5, and First Vienna's home record is a 50/50 split.

My verdict: I am comfortable recommending over 2.5 goals at 1.65. The scoring evidence is consistent across the head-to-head, the home form, and the away record, and I rate the chance of three or more goals at roughly 68%, which sits comfortably above the market's 60.61% implied figure. This is the kind of number I can stand behind.