First Vienna vs SKN ST. Polten Prediction

Right, so we've got First Vienna hosting SKN ST. Polten in the 2. Liga on 9 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.

First Vienna have been absolutely cracking it of late. Four wins from their last five, scoring 11 goals and conceding just three. That's 2.2 a game on the attack and 0.6 on the defence – not bad at all. They've won three of their last four away games (3-1 at WSPG Wels, 2-0 at Rapid Wien II, 4-0 at Austria Salzburg) and picked up a 1-0 at home against SKU Amstetten before that. The only blemish was a 1-2 loss at Lask Linz just seven days ago in a friendly, but that's one game and it doesn't shift the picture much. Looking at their last 10 across all grounds, they've won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2, scoring 2.1 per game and keeping it to 1 conceded. That's a side in full flow.

Now, the head-to-head at this venue is worth a look. The most recent meeting here – back in February – ended 2-1 to First Vienna. And if you go further back, both older meetings at this ground also went to the home side (2-1 and 7-3). So three of the last three times these two have met at First Vienna's place, the hosts have won. That's a pattern worth noting, even if two of those are a couple of years old.

SKN ST. Polten, on the other hand, are on a two-game winning run (2-1 at home to Bregenz and 3-1 at Liefering), but zoom out a bit and their last 10 tells a different tale: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses. They're scoring 0.8 per game and failing to score in 5 of those 10. Their away record over the last 20 away games is 9W 3D 8L, which is a bit more even than you'd like when you're travelling. And their recent home form includes a 0-3 loss to Red Bull Salzburg in the Cup, which stings a bit.

The counter-argument? Well, SKN ST. Polten are on a two-game run and they've scored 5 goals in those two, so they're not exactly toothless. And First Vienna did drop points at Lask Linz just a week ago, so they're not invincible. The market has First Vienna at 1.95, which prices them at about 51% – and I'd put their actual chance a touch higher, around 55%, given the form gap and the venue record. That's a small but real edge.

Key Points:

• First Vienna: 4W 1L in last 5, 2.2 goals scored per game, 0.6 conceded

• SKN ST. Polten: 3W 1D 6L in last 10, 0.8 goals scored per game

• Head-to-head at First Vienna's ground: 3 wins from 3 meetings (1 recent, 2 older)

• First Vienna home record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games; SKN ST. Polten away: 9W 3D 8L

• SKN ST. Polten on a 2-game winning run but 6 losses in their last 10

So my pick is the First Vienna home win at 1.95. The form, the venue record, and the overall picture all point the same way. Grab a pint, put your money on the hosts, and let's see if the numbers hold true.