First Vienna vs SKU Amstetten Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. First Vienna are stuck in 8th place and frankly, their home form has been shocking. We're talking a big fat zero percent win rate in their last five matches on their own patch, scoring just 0.4 goals per game at home. They've been getting turned over by decent sides like Admira (1-3), Floridsdorfer (0-2), and Austria Klagenfurt (0-2). Their only recent wins came against the league's bottom feeders.

Now look at SKU Amstetten - they're sitting pretty in 4th and here's the kicker: they haven't lost a single game in their last ten outings! Four wins and six draws, proper solid stuff. They're keeping it tight at the back too, letting in less than a goal per game on average. They even beat First Vienna 2-1 in the Cup earlier this season, so they know how to get the job done against these lads.

The head-to-head might historically favour Vienna, but form is king in football, and right now there's only one team in form. Amstetten are scoring 1.33 goals per game away from home while Vienna are struggling to hit the back of the net at home. The maths suggests Amstetten should net around 1.5 goals here while Vienna might struggle to get one.

With Amstetten priced at 2.45 for the away win, that looks like proper value to me. They're unbeaten for a reason, and Vienna's home form is absolutely woeful.