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Match preview
BrazilSerie A
Match preview
BrazilSerie A
Right, so it's Flamengo at home on 26 October, and Atletico-MG are the visitors. If you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one's got a rather one-sided feel to it.
Flamengo's home record over the last 20 games is 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss. They score 1.85 per game at home and concede just 0.75. That's a tough place to visit, mate. You go to their ground and you're in for a tough evening if you're the visitor. Atletico-MG, on the other hand, have a rather uncomfortable away record. Over their last 20 games on the road, they've won 6, drawn 4 and lost 10, scoring just 0.95 per game and conceding 1.15. Nine of those 20 away games ended with them failing to score at all. That's a team that struggles to find the back of the net when they're not at home, and it's a problem when you're facing a side that keep clean sheets 10 times in 20 at home.
The head-to-head adds a nice little spice. Back in April this year, Flamengo went to Atletico-MG's ground and won 4-0. The meeting before that, in November, was a 1-1 draw. So the last two meetings, both at Atletico-MG's ground, tell you Flamengo have been the stronger side. The older meetings go back further and dilute the picture, but the recent ones say it all.
Flamengo's last five games have been 2 wins and 3 draws with no defeats, and they've kept 4 clean sheets in that stretch. Yes, two of those draws were 0-0 — both against Estudiantes in the Libertadores — but the 3-0 away win at Bahia on 18 October showed they can still go out and score. Atletico-MG's last five is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, but that loss was a 0-2 away to Atletico Torque with a red card in the 75th minute. They've scored 8 in those 5 games, so they're not without a threat.
The counter-argument is that Flamengo have drawn three of their last five, and two of those were scoreless. If Flamengo don't find the net and Atletico-MG score one, it could be a tight affair. Atletico-MG's xG against in their last five games with data was 1.67 per game. But they've also scored 8 in that stretch, so they're not sitting on zero.
Key Points:
So my pick is the Flamengo home win at 1.34. The numbers at both ends of the pitch tell the same story — Flamengo at home are hard to beat, and Atletico-MG away struggle to find the net. The market has Flamengo at 74.63%, but I'd put their chances closer to 78% given the home record and the away struggles of the visitors. That's value for the punters.
BTTS No
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