Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League Two scrap between Fleetwood and Accrington. The table tells a story here - Fleetwood sitting pretty in 12th with 19 points, while Accrington are languishing down in 20th with just 12 points to show for their efforts. That's a seven-point gap, mate, and it matters.

Now, Fleetwood at home have been proper decent, I'll give 'em that. They're winning 60% of their home games and rattling in 2.8 goals per match on their own patch. Look at their recent home form - they put four past Colchester, three past Harrogate, and even smashed Leeds U21 4-0 in the Trophy. They know where the goal is at home, no doubt about it.

Accrington on the road? Well, it's not pretty reading. Just 20% win rate away from home and barely managing a goal per game (0.8 to be exact). They've been shipping points like there's no tomorrow on their travels.

But here's the curveball - Accrington just smashed second-place Swindon 4-0! Sometimes a result like that can kickstart a season, can't it? You can't completely write them off after that performance.

Head-to-head, it's dead level - three wins each and three draws from nine meetings. But here's the thing: Fleetwood have been proper poor at home against Accrington historically, only winning one of six. And these matches tend to be goal-fests - seven of the nine have seen over 2.5 goals. They even drew 2-2 in the EFL Trophy back in September.

Look, when you strip it all back, Fleetwood are the better team, playing at home where they score for fun. Accrington had one big result but their away form has been shocking all season. Sometimes you've got to trust the bigger picture over one result.

The odds of 2.05 for a home win look about right to me, maybe even a touch generous given Accrington's travel sickness. I'm backing Fleetwood to do the business here.