Preview
Value VinnyFolgore Caratese host Treviso on 17 October in Serie C Girone A, and the numbers are pointing one way. Treviso's away record over 20 games is the most telling figure in this fixture: 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses, 1.65 points per game, and just 0.8 goals conceded per game. Nine of those 20 away games ended in a clean sheet. That is a side that travels well and keeps the ball out of its own net.
Folgore Caratese, by contrast, are in a rough patch. They lost their last two matches — 0–1 at Trento on 11 October and 1–2 at home to Desenzano Calvina on 3 October — scoring just one goal and conceding three across those two games. Their last 10 games across all venues show 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses, with 1.4 goals conceded per game and only 1 clean sheet in that stretch. The home record over 20 games (8W 7D 5L, 1.55 PPG) is respectable, but the last five matches tell a very different story: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, and a red card in the 90th minute against Giana Erminio.
Treviso's recent form is not perfect — they lost 0–1 to Ospitaletto on 11 October and have only won one of their last five — but the quality of those results matters. Three of those five were clean sheets (the 0–0 draw with Giana Erminio, the 0–0 draw with Desenzano Calvina, and the 1–0 win at Renate). They kept a 1–0 win at Renate on 27 September, and the only blemish in that run is the single defeat. Their last 10 games show 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 1.3 points per game, and 0.8 goals conceded per game. That is a side that is difficult to break down.
The head-to-head is thin. The only meeting between these two sides within the last 12 months was on 13 May at Folgore Caratese's ground, a 2–0 win for the hosts in the Serie D Championship Round. That is one data point from a different competition, and it doesn't carry the weight of Treviso's 20-game away record. There have been no meetings at Treviso's ground in the recent window.
The counter-argument is that Treviso have only won one of their last five and failed to score in three of those games. Folgore Caratese do have a home record that has produced 36 goals in 20 games, and the 2–0 H2H result shows they can handle this fixture. But one game from five months ago in a different competition doesn't outweigh 20 away games where Treviso have conceded 16 goals and kept 9 clean sheets.
Key Points:
- Treviso's away record: 9W 6D 5L, 0.8 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets in 20 games
- Folgore Caratese lost their last two matches, scoring 1 and conceding 3
- Treviso kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 games
- The only recent H2H meeting (13 May) was a 2–0 Folgore Caratese win in a different competition
- Treviso's last 10: 3W 4D 3L, 1.3 PPG, 0.8 conceded per game
The market prices Treviso's win at 2.65, implying a 37.74% chance. My reading of the form, the away record and the current run puts Treviso's win probability closer to 45%. That gap between what the numbers say and what the price says is where the value lives. I'm backing the away win.