Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceThe force is strong with Treviso, and so it shows in the numbers. Over their last 20 away games, they have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 5, conceding just 0.8 goals per game and keeping 9 clean sheets. Their defence, my young friend, is the quiet kind that wins matches without the crowd noticing. Three of their last five games ended in a goalless draw or a single-goal loss, and they have failed to score in three of those five. A team that shuts the door and waits — that is Treviso on the road.
Folgore Caratese, meanwhile, have lost their last two. One at Trento, one at home to Desenzano Calvina. In their last ten games across all grounds, they have won just once, drawn four and lost five, conceding 1.4 per game. At home over 20 games they are not without honour — 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses, scoring 1.8 per game — but the current form tells a different story. The last two home games: a 1–2 defeat and a 1–1 draw that saw them reduced to ten men in the final minute.
The head-to-head is a single meeting, five months ago at Folgore Caratese's ground, a 2–0 win in the old Serie D Championship Round. One game. A memory, not a pattern. And it was in a different competition, a different round. I will not build a castle on one brick.
The counter-argument, and I must give it its due: Folgore Caratese at home have scored in 19 of their last 20 home games, and 14 of those 20 saw both teams find the net. Their home scoring record of 1.8 per game is the higher figure in this matchup. Treviso, on the other hand, have failed to score in 4 of their last 20 away games. A home side that scores and an away side that sometimes does not — that is the crack in the wall.
But the wall is thick. Treviso's away defence — 0.8 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets in 20 — is the better record in this fixture. Their last five games have produced just 6 goals in total. Folgore's last five have produced 9. The tide of goals has turned, and it has turned away from the home side.
Key Points:
- Treviso's away record: 9W 6D 5L in 20 games, 0.8 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets
- Folgore Caratese lost their last two and have won just 1 of their last 10
- Treviso's last 5 games: 1W 3D 1L, with 4 of 5 finishing under 2.5 goals
- The only head-to-head meeting (May 2026) was a 2–0 Folgore Caratese win in a different competition
- Folgore Caratese's home scoring record (1.8 per game) is the one bright spot for the hosts
The force is with the visitors. I place my bet on the away win. Treviso, at 2.65, are the side with the steadier hand and the stronger shield. The market prices them at 37.74%, but the evidence of their away defence and the home side's waning form tells me the true chance sits a touch higher. Do or do not bet, there is no try — but this one, I do.