Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Folgore Caratese hosting Treviso on 17 October in Serie C Girone A, and if you've been following these two sides, the one thing that jumps out is just how tight this is likely to be.
Folgore Caratese are in a bit of a rut. They've lost their last two — a 0-1 defeat at Trento on 11 October and a 1-2 home loss to Desenzano Calvina on 3 October — and in those two games they've managed just one goal while conceding three. Looking at their last 10 across all grounds, the numbers are grim: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses, 0.7 points per game, and they've conceded 1.4 per game. They've failed to score in 3 of those 10. Now, their home record over 20 games isn't terrible — 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses, 1.8 goals scored per game — but that's a 12-month stretch and the older games dilute what's happening right now. The recent form tells a much blunter story.
Treviso, on the other hand, are the steadier side. Yes, they dropped a 0-1 at home to Ospitaletto on 11 October, but before that they'd drawn 0-0 with Giana Erminio and Desenzano Calvina at home, and won 1-0 at Renate. In their last five, they've kept 3 clean sheets, scored just 3 goals, and conceded just 3. Their away record over 20 games is the real headline: 9 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses, 1.65 points per game, and crucially, they've conceded just 0.8 per game away with 9 clean sheets in 20. That's a defence that shuts the door.
The head-to-head is thin — just one meeting, back in May at Folgore Caratese's ground, which ended 2-0 to the hosts in the Serie D Championship Round. So there's no deep history to lean on, but that 2-0 scoreline does at least tell you this fixture tends to be low-scoring.
The counter-argument? Folgore Caratese do score at home — 1.8 per game over 20 home games — and they've got that one H2H win in their pocket. Plus, Treviso have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, so if Caratese find a way through, the visitors might not respond. But that's a stretch when Treviso's away defence is averaging under a goal per game and has kept 9 clean sheets in 20 away fixtures.
Key Points:
- Treviso's away record: 9W 6D 5L over 20 games, 0.8 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets
- Folgore Caratese lost their last two, scoring just 1 and conceding 3
- Treviso's last 5: 4 of 5 games finished under 2.5 goals
- The only H2H meeting (May 2026) ended 2-0 — under 2.5
- Both teams' recent scoring has been low: Caratese 0.8 per game in last 5, Treviso 0.6 per game
The market prices Under 2.5 at 1.55, implying a 64.52% chance. My read on the evidence — Treviso's away defence, both teams' recent low-scoring output, and that 2-0 H2H — puts the real likelihood closer to 68%. That's a small but genuine edge. My tip: under 2.5 goals.