Forli vs Livorno Prediction

Forli's home record tells a story the market seems to be underpricing. Across 20 home games spanning the last 11 months, Forli have won 6, drawn 9 and lost 5, averaging 1.35 points per game and scoring 1.4 goals per match. Livorno's away record over 20 games tells a very different tale: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, with just 0.65 goals scored per game. The gap in scoring output at this venue is stark — Forli average 1.4 at home while Livorno manage 0.65 on the road. Forli have also kept 5 clean sheets in those 20 home games, and their defensive record of 1.25 conceded per game edges out Livorno's 1.3 away.

The head-to-head adds texture. In the two recent meetings within the last 12 months, Forli won 3–2 at Livorno's ground on 2 November 2025, and the fixture at Forli's ground on 8 March 2026 ended 1–1. The older meeting in May 2025 at Livorno's ground (3–1 to Livorno) is historical record and doesn't carry the same weight as the recent meetings. At this specific venue, the only recent meeting was a draw, but the broader picture over the last year leans toward Forli.

The counter-argument is Forli's recent form. Their last five games produced 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with the most recent result a 0–1 defeat at Vado on 3 October. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of those five matches and scored just 5 goals in total. Livorno, while also losing their last game (0–1 at home to Pescara on 3 October), have won 2 of their last 5 and scored 7 goals. Their latest 10 across all venues shows 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses at 1.8 points per game, compared to Forli's 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses at 1.1. That recent form gap is real and worth acknowledging.

That said, Forli's home record is built over 20 games and is far more stable than a five-game sample. The fact that Livorno have failed to score in 10 of their 20 away games and have only won 4 of those 20 makes the away price look generous for the visitors. Forli's home scoring record of 28 goals in 20 games, against Livorno's 13 away goals in 20, is the single most telling number in this fixture. I rate Forli's chance of winning at roughly 36%, which sits above the market's 33.33% implied probability on the 3.0 price. The home record and the scoring gap give me a genuine edge here.

Key Points:

• Forli home record: 6W 9D 5L, 1.35 ppg, 1.4 goals scored per game

• Livorno away record: 4W 6D 10L, 0.9 ppg, 0.65 goals scored per game

• Recent H2H: Forli won 3–2 away (2 Nov 2025), 1–1 draw at Forli's ground (8 Mar 2026)

• Forli's last 5: 1W 3D 1L; Livorno's last 5: 2W 1D 2L

• Livorno have failed to score in 10 of 20 away games

Verdict: Forli home win at 3.0.