Forli vs Livorno Prediction

Right, so we've got Forli hosting Livorno on 11 October in Serie C Girone B, and the bookies have Livorno as the slight favourite at 2.46. But when I dig into the actual numbers, the picture looks a bit different.

Here's the thing that jumps out: Forli at home over their last 20 games have won 6, drawn 9 and lost 5, scoring 1.4 goals a game and conceding 1.25. Livorno on the road over their last 20 away games? 4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses, scoring just 0.65 a game and conceding 1.3. Forli are scoring 1.4 a game at home while Livorno manage 0.65 away, and Forli lose 5 of 20 at home compared to Livorno's 10 of 20 on the road. That's a significant gap in the right direction.

The head-to-head backs this up. In the last 12 months, Forli beat Livorno 3-2 at Livorno's ground in November 2025, and the two met at Forli's ground in March 2026 for a 1-1 draw. So Forli have a win and a draw from their last two meetings. The only loss between them was back in May 2025 in a Serie D Championship Round game — that's historical, not current form.

Forli's recent form has been a bit flat — three 1-1 draws in a row before the 0-1 loss at Vado on 3 October. But that loss was 8 days ago, and before that they were drawing everywhere. Livorno, meanwhile, lost 0-1 at home to Pescara on the same day, but before that they'd won 3-2 at Pianese and 3-2 at Vado. So both teams are coming off a loss, but Livorno's 10 losses in 20 away games is the real red flag.

The counter-argument is straightforward: Livorno's overall form over the last 10 games is 5W 3D 2L with 1.8 points per game, while Forli sit at 2W 5D 3L with 1.1. Livorno are the better side in terms of recent results across all venues. And the market agrees, pricing them at 40.65% to win.

But that all-venues form doesn't tell you what happens when Livorno travel. Their away record is where the cracks show — 4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses, and they've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away games. Forli at home, by contrast, have failed to score in just 5 of 20.

Key Points:

• Forli's home record (6W 9D 5L, 1.4 scored per game) is a world away from Livorno's away record (4W 6D 10L, 0.65 scored per game)

• H2H in the last 12 months: Forli won 3-2 away and drew 1-1 at home

• Both teams lost their last game on 3 October, but Livorno's 10 losses in 20 away games is the real concern

• Livorno's overall form (5W 3D 2L in last 10) is better, but that's all-venues, not away-specific

• The market prices Livorno at 40.65%, but the home/away numbers suggest Forli are worth more than 33.33%

My verdict: Forli home win at 3.0.