Preview
Umery UnderdogForli and Livorno meet at Forli's ground on 11 October in Serie C Girone B, and the numbers point to a level result that the market is underpricing.
Livorno's away record over the last 20 games is the most telling figure in this fixture: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, with just 0.65 goals scored per game. In 10 of those 20 away matches, Livorno failed to score at all. Their points per game on the road is 0.9, the lowest of any record in this matchup. At Forli's ground specifically, the only recent meeting ended 1–1 in March 2026, and the one before that saw Forli win 3–2 at Livorno's ground in November 2025. Livorno have not won at this venue in the recent head-to-head.
Forli's home record over 20 games is 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses, earning 1.35 points per game. Those 9 draws in 20 home games are the key number. In their last five matches across all venues, Forli have drawn three times — against Torres at home on 19 September, Pineto away on 16 September, and Ostia Mare away on 27 September — before losing 0–1 at Vado on 3 October. Their home scoring averages 1.4 goals per game, compared to Livorno's away scoring of 0.65.
The counter-argument is that Livorno's overall recent form is stronger. Over their last 10 games, Livorno have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2, earning 1.8 points per game, while Forli have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 at 1.1 points per game. Livorno also conceded just 1.0 per game in that stretch, compared to Forli's 1.5. The market prices Livorno as the favourite at 2.46, with a 40.65% implied probability, and that is fair given their recent results.
But the venue-specific numbers and the draw-heavy pattern in both teams' recent results make a level score the most likely outcome. Forli have drawn 3 of their last 5, the head-to-head at this ground ended 1–1, and Livorno's away record is littered with draws and scoreless defeats. Both teams are in a rhythm that produces stalemates rather than decisive results.
Key Points:
- Livorno's away record: 4W 6D 10L in 20 games, scoring just 0.65 per game
- Forli's home record: 6W 9D 5L in 20 games, with 9 draws
- Recent head-to-head at Forli's ground: 1–1 draw (8 March 2026)
- Forli have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches
- Livorno failed to score in 10 of their last 20 away games
I'm backing the draw at 3.25.