Preview
Right, lads, it's Forli versus Pianese on 25 October in Serie C Girone B, and if you've been keeping an eye on the numbers, this one is screaming low-scoring football.
Forli have been a bit of a nightmare lately. Five games, no wins — three draws and two losses. They lost 2-3 at Guidonia on 17 October, drew 1-1 with Livorno at home on 11 October, lost 0-1 at Vado on 3 October, drew 1-1 at Ostia Mare on 27 September, and drew 1-1 with Torres at home on 19 September. Four of those five finished with two or fewer goals. They've not kept a clean sheet in any of those five, and they've only failed to score once. So they're scoring, but they're not winning.
Pianese, on the other hand, have been a bit more stable. One win, three draws, one loss in their last five. And here's the kicker — their last two games have been 0-0 draws. 0-0 at home against Pineto on 17 October, 0-0 away at Ostia Mare on 10 October. They've scored just five goals in those five games and conceded five. Two of those five were scoreless.
Now let's look at the venue numbers. Forli's home record over 20 games — spanning from 11 October 2025 to 11 October 2026 — tells a story of draws and low scores. Five wins, ten draws, five losses. Thirteen of those 20 games finished with two or fewer goals. Pianese's away record over 20 games — from 16 November 2025 to 10 October 2026 — is even more telling: four wins, nine draws, seven losses, and 15 of those 20 games went under 2.5.
The head-to-head at Forli's ground? A 0-0 draw on 29 March 2026. The other meeting, at Pianese's ground on 22 November 2025, was a 3-2 Pianese win. So at this venue, the last time these two met, nobody scored.
The counter-argument? Forli do score at home — 1.4 per game over those 20 home games — and 13 of those 20 saw both teams find the net. So there's a realistic chance Forli open up and drag Pianese into a scoring game. Pianese's away record does show 10 of 20 BTTS yes, so they're not a team that shuts up shop completely.
But the weight of evidence is firmly on the low end. Four of Forli's last five, three of Pianese's last five, 13 of 20 at Forli's ground, 15 of 20 on the road for Pianese, and the last meeting here was a 0-0. The market prices under 2.5 at 1.72, which implies about 58% — and I'd put my own estimate a touch higher, around 63%. That's a small but real edge, and the numbers back it up across the board.
Key Points:
- Forli's last 5 games: 0W 3D 2L, 4/5 under 2.5 goals
- Pianese's last 5 games: 1W 3D 1L, 3/5 under 2.5, with a current run of 2 scoreless draws
- Forli home (20 games): 13/20 under 2.5; Pianese away (20 games): 15/20 under 2.5
- Head-to-head at Forli's ground: 0-0 draw (29 March 2026)
- Market price for under 2.5: 1.72
My pick: under 2.5 goals.
