Preview
Right, so we've got Fort Wayne hosting Sarasota Paradise on 17 October, and this one smells like a home win if you ask me. Fort Wayne have not lost in their last five — two wins and three draws — and the current run is two straight victories with 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded. At their ground over 20 games, they sit at 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.65 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Nine of those 20 home games ended in a clean sheet, so the backline is sorted. You can set the braai and pour the beer, because this is the kind of evening where the home side does the business.
Sarasota Paradise travel with a mixed bag. Their last five is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, and the scoring numbers are wild — 16 goals in 5 games, 3.2 per game. But their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses, with 1.7 goals conceded per game and only 5 clean sheets. Half their away games end in a defeat, and that is a problem when you are walking into a team that has not lost in five. The 2–3 loss to Charlotte Independence at home two weeks ago showed the cracks, even if the 3–2 win over Richmond Kickers on 10 October kept the momentum alive.
The head-to-head is thin — just one meeting, a 2–2 draw at Sarasota Paradise's ground back in March. No history at Fort Wayne's ground, so there is nothing to lean on there. What we do have is the matchup table, and it clearly favours Fort Wayne at home: 1.4 points per game versus 1.1, 1.2 conceded per game versus 1.7, and 9 clean sheets versus 5. Fort Wayne fail to score in only 4 of 20 home games, while Sarasota Paradise fail to score in 7 of 20 away games. That is a real difference when you are trying to keep a clean sheet.
Now, the counter-argument: Sarasota Paradise are in good form, scoring in all 5 of their recent games, and their away attack averages 1.8 goals per game, which is actually higher than Fort Wayne's home scoring of 1.65. That 2–2 draw in March shows this is not a one-sided fixture. Fort Wayne's home record does include 6 losses in 20, so they are not untouchable. And if Sarasota Paradise's scoring form continues, this could open up.
But the balance tips Fort Wayne's way. No losses in five, a two-game winning run, and an away side that drops points in half their games on the road. The market prices Fort Wayne at 2.08, implying about 48% — I rate the home win closer to 53%, which gives a decent edge on the price. It is a solid home record meeting a shaky away one, and I am happy to back the hosts.
Key Points:
- Fort Wayne: 2W 3D 0L in last 5, current run of 2 wins (4 scored, 1 conceded)
- Sarasota Paradise away: 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, 1.7 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets
- H2H: single 2–2 draw at Sarasota's ground in March — no meetings at Fort Wayne's ground
- Fort Wayne home: 9/20 clean sheets, 1.2 conceded per game; Sarasota Paradise away: 5/20 clean sheets, 1.7 conceded
- Sarasota Paradise scored in all 5 recent games but lost 2–3 at home to Charlotte Independence on 3 October
Fort Wayne home win at 2.08.
