Preview
Umery UnderdogFortaleza EC and CRB meet at Fortaleza EC's ground on 12 October in Serie B, and there's a little underdog angle I can't ignore in this one.
The case for both teams finding the net is built on recent form and the venue record. Fortaleza EC have scored in all five of their last matches — 7 goals in those games — and at home over 20 games they've failed to score in just one. CRB, meanwhile, have scored in four of their last five matches, and their away record over 20 games shows them finding the net in 12 of those 20. The recent head-to-head tells a similar story: two of the three meetings within the last 12 months (the 1–1 at CRB's ground in June and the 2–1 at Fortaleza EC's ground in April) saw both sides cross the line.
Fortaleza EC's home numbers are telling. Over 20 home games, they've scored 34 times (1.7 per game) and conceded 21 (1.05 per game), with both teams scoring in 13 of those 20. CRB's away record over 20 games shows 17 goals scored (0.85 per game) and 32 conceded (1.6 per game), with both teams scoring in 8 of those 20. The overlap is interesting: Fortaleza EC score plenty at home, and CRB's away defence leaks.
The counter-argument is that CRB's away scoring is modest — 0.85 per game — and the full head-to-head aggregate across 17 meetings going back to 2013 shows only 5 of those 17 saw both teams score. That's a long tail of low-scoring affairs, though most of those meetings are historical and don't reflect current form. CRB also failed to score in their 0–1 loss at Ponte Preta on 20 September, and their away record includes 8 games without a goal.
Still, the recent picture is one of two teams that are finding the net. Fortaleza EC's last five matches produced 7 goals for and 5 against, with both teams scoring in 4 of 5. CRB's last five produced 9 for and 6 against, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5. The market prices both teams to score at 1.91, implying a 52.36% chance. My read of the form and venue records puts that closer to 56%, which gives a small but genuine edge for the little puppy in this market.
Key Points:
- Fortaleza EC have scored in all 5 recent matches and failed to score just 1 time in 20 home games
- CRB have scored in 4 of their last 5 and in 12 of 20 away games
- 2 of 3 recent head-to-head meetings saw both teams score
- CRB's away defence concedes 1.6 per game over 20 away games
- The full head-to-head is mostly historical and low-scoring, but recent form points the other way
My pick: both teams to score.