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Fortaleza EC host CRB at their own ground on 12 October in Serie B, and the numbers tell a clear story in the hosts' favour. Fortaleza have been unbeaten in their last 10 matches across all venues — 5 wins and 5 draws, no defeats — and their home record over 20 games is 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 1.7 goals scored per game and 1.05 conceded. CRB, by contrast, have won just 6 of their last 20 away games, drawing 4 and losing 10, averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per outing. The gap between these two records is the single most telling piece of evidence in this fixture.
The head-to-head at Fortaleza's ground adds a further layer. The only recent meeting here, on 22 April in the Copa Do Brasil, ended 2–1 to Fortaleza. The two meetings at CRB's ground in the last 12 months both finished level — 1–1 and 0–0 — so the pattern across the last three meetings is one win for Fortaleza and two draws. The older meetings at this venue are historical and I will not treat them as current form.
Here is where my caution kicks in. Fortaleza's last three home games — against Nautico Recife on 3 October, Athletic Club on 27 September, and Ceara on 13 September — all ended in draws: 1–1, 2–2 and 1–1. That is not a losing run, but it is a pattern of home games that have not produced a win. CRB, meanwhile, have won their last two home games (3–1 and 3–0) but lost both of their recent away fixtures, going down 1–3 at São Bernardo on 2 October and 0–1 at Ponte Preta on 20 September. Their away record over 20 games — 10 losses — is the weakest record in this fixture, and it is the main reason the market prices Fortaleza as favourites at 1.82.
The counter-argument is straightforward. Fortaleza have not won at home in their last three attempts. CRB are not without quality; they scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches and won 3 of those 5. Their xG figures over three recent games show 1.9 expected goals per game, which is respectable. The head-to-head has produced two draws at CRB's ground, and the full 17-meeting aggregate shows 11 of 17 games finished under 2.5 goals, suggesting this pairing tends toward low-scoring affairs. None of that is enough to make me comfortable backing an away win or a draw, but it does mean the home win is not the slam-dunk the 20-game home record might suggest.
Key Points:
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 10 matches (5W 5D 0L) and hold a 12W 5D 3L record over 20 home games.
- CRB have lost 10 of their last 20 away games, including both of their two most recent away fixtures.
- Fortaleza's last three home matches all ended in draws (1–1, 2–2, 1–1), which tempers the broader home record.
- The only recent head-to-head at Fortaleza's ground was a 2–1 Fortaleza win; the two recent meetings at CRB's ground were both draws.
- The full 17-meeting head-to-head aggregate shows 11 of 17 games finished under 2.5 goals, pointing toward a low-scoring contest.
I have looked at every angle of this fixture and the evidence tilts toward Fortaleza, but the three consecutive home draws and the fact that CRB are not without a goal in their recent away matches mean I cannot assign this outcome the level of certainty I require. The available prices do not give me the margin I need to feel safe. No Bet.