Fortaleza EC vs Criciuma Prediction

Hm. The force is strong with Fortaleza. Do or do not bet, there is no try... but hedge your bets, you should. Listen to the data, young padawan.

Fortaleza EC at home is a fortress. In their last three home games, they won two and drew one, a 66.67% win rate. Their attack scores 1.33 goals per game at home, while conceding only 0.67. This is a sign of a balanced team, you see. They take 13 shots per game at home, with 3.5 on target. A solid offense, yes.

Criciuma away is a different story. Their away win rate is 33.33% from the last six games. They score 0.67 goals per game away and concede 0.67. Their shots on target away are low, only 1.00 per game. They struggle to create chances on the road. Their goal environment away is very low, 685.4 in ultra short term.

The history between them is clear. In four meetings, Fortaleza EC has won two, drawn one, and lost one. But look at the home record: Fortaleza EC has won 100% of home games against Criciuma. The last meeting ended 1-0 in 2024. Recent results show Fortaleza EC drawing 1-1 with America-RN and beating São Bernardo 1-0. Criciuma drew 1-1 with Athletic Club and lost 0-1 to Goias.

Goal expectancy suggests a low-scoring affair. The mathematical analysis predicts 1.00 goals for the home side and 0.67 for the away side. Total 1.67 goals. This supports a Home Win, likely 1-0 or 2-0.

The odds for a Home Win are 1.98. The implied probability is 50.5%. Given the 100% H2H home win rate and strong home form, the true probability is likely higher. There is value here. The Under 2.5 odds are 1.64, but the fair probability is 58.79%, offering little edge.

Key Points:

• Fortaleza EC Home Win Rate: 66.67%.

• Criciuma Away Win Rate: 33.33%.

• H2H Home Record: Fortaleza EC 100% win rate.

• Goal Expectancy: 1.67 total.

• Recommended Bet: Home Win.