Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Preußen Münster Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-half tussle in the 2. Bundesliga. Fortuna Düsseldorf, sitting 13th, welcome Preußen Münster, who are 16th. It's a proper six-pointer, and if you ask me, the home side are looking the business lately.

Fortuna have turned their gaff into a bit of a fortress. In their last five at home, they've won four, including a cracking 2-1 result against high-flying SC Paderborn. They're scoring 1.4 goals a game on their own patch and only letting in one. That's a solid platform. Their recent results show they can mix it with the best, beating Paderborn (3rd) and Arminia Bielefeld, while their losses have come against the likes of Hannover and Schalke – no shame there.

Münster, on the other hand, are the draw specialists. Five draws in their last ten tells you everything. They've held decent sides like Bochum, Nürnberg, and even league leaders Darmstadt to a single goal defeat. But here's the rub: they only have two wins in that same period. Away from home, they've nicked a win at Bielefeld but otherwise it's been a struggle for three points. They're organised and hard to beat, but winning? That's a different story.

The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're a Fortuna fan. They've won two of the three meetings, including a 2-1 victory earlier this season. At home, they've got a 100% record against Münster.

When we look at the numbers, both teams score in 70% of their recent games, so chances are we'll see goals at both ends. The goal expectancies point to over 2.5, but the odds of 1.78 for that don't scream value to me. The real value, in my book, lies with Fortuna to win at home. The bookies have them at 2.02, which implies they've only got about a 50% chance. Given their 80% home win rate in the last five and Münster's 25% away win rate, I reckon Fortuna's true chances are closer to 55%. That's a nice little edge for us punters.

Key Points:

Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4 of their last 5 home league games.

Preußen Münster have drawn 5 of their last 10 matches, winning only twice.

Fortuna won the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season.

Both teams have scored in 70% of both side's recent matches.

• Fortuna's home attack (1.4 goals/game) is stronger than Münster's away attack (1.0 goals/game).

In summary, while Münster are stubborn and draw a lot, Fortuna's form at home is too strong to ignore. The price on the home win offers genuine value. Back Fortuna Düsseldorf to take all three points.