Frosinone vs Empoli Prediction

Hello my fellow puppy lovers! Umery here with my magnifying glass firmly focused on the little guy with the big heart. This Friday night in Serie B, we've got a classic David versus Goliath tale as second-placed Frosinone host mid-table Empoli, and I spy a juicy opportunity for us underdog enthusiasts!

Frosinone are having a magnificent campaign, sitting pretty with 52 points from 25 games and breathing down Venezia's necks at the summit. Their recent form is formidable indeed - six wins in their last ten outings, including a professional 2-0 victory away at Spezia (who typically concede just 1.00 goal per game) and a convincing 3-1 triumph at Avellino. At home, they've been particularly stingy, winning 75% of their last four home fixtures and conceding a mere 0.75 goals per game on their own patch. They even managed to hold promotion rivals Monza to a 2-2 draw and dispatch high-flying Catanzaro (who average 2.50 points per game) with a comfortable 2-0 scoreline.

But here's the thing, my friends - I never back the favourite! And that's why my heart is beating for Empoli this week. Yes, they're languishing in 11th with just 29 points, and their recent record of two wins in ten doesn't scream 'value' at first glance. But look closer at those defeats - they lost 2-3 to Palermo (who are flying with 2.20 points per game), 1-2 to Juve Stabia (solid 1.70 PPG), and 0-3 to Carrarese. These came against decent opposition, and significantly, Empoli managed to score twice against Palermo's usually resolute defense.

Now, here's where it gets exciting for us underdog hunters. Empoli have actually won four of the nine meetings between these sides, compared to Frosinone's two victories. Even more encouraging, Empoli won 2-1 on their last visit to this ground back in November 2023, and they held Frosinone to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture just two months ago on Boxing Day when Frosinone were in equally hot form. The 'little puppies' have Frosinone's number!

Away from home, Empoli have shown they can grind out results against the odds - they've won 40% of their last five away games, including impressive 1-0 victories at Cesena (eighth in the table with 1.70 PPG) and Mantova. While they've only scored 0.80 goals per game away from home, they've shown resilience against top sides and kept three clean sheets in their last ten overall.

At odds of 3.60, the market is treating Empoli like they don't belong on the same pitch, but the historical data and their ability to frustrate Frosinone suggest otherwise. Frosinone may be the promotion favourites, but Empoli have the blueprint to upset them, and at these prices, the value is undeniable for the brave underdog backer.

Key Points:

• Frosinone are second in Serie B with 52 points and have won six of their last ten games

• Empoli sit 11th with 29 points but hold a superior head-to-head record (4 wins to 2)

• Empoli won 2-1 on their last visit to Frosinone in November 2023

• Empoli have won 40% of their last five away games, including victories at Cesena (1.70 PPG) and Mantova

• The reverse fixture this season ended 1-1 on Boxing Day despite Frosinone's excellent form

• Empoli are available at 3.60, offering significant value given their historical success against Frosinone

Summary:

While Frosinone look destined for the top flight with their 75% home win rate and stingy defense, Empoli have consistently proven to be their bogey team with four wins in nine meetings. At 3.60, the away side represent excellent value for us underdog enthusiasts who measure success in long-term profitability rather than win frequency. I'm backing the little guys to cause a shock upset!