Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Frosinone hosting Sassuolo on 16 October, and if you've got a spare half hour, the numbers here paint a pretty clear picture.
Frosinone at home are the ones to fancy, and I'm not just pulling that out of thin air. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 5 and lost just 3, racking up 2.05 points per game. They've scored 39 goals at home in those 20 fixtures and conceded only 18, which means they've kept a clean sheet in 8 of those 20. That's a side that comes to work at their own ground.
Now look at Sassuolo on the road. Their last 20 away games? 4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses. That's 0.9 points per game, and they've scored just 23 while conceding 28. They've failed to score in 6 of those 20 away trips. That's a team that struggles when they're not at home, plain and simple.
Frosinone's recent form has been solid too. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, and the loss was a 0-3 at Napoli six days ago. Yeah, that stings, but Napoli are a different beast. At home, Frosinone have won their last three — a 2-1 friendly to Benevento, 2-0 to Como, and 3-2 to Venezia. They're scoring freely and keeping things tight.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have managed just one win in their last five — a 3-2 against Juventus at home. The rest have been draws (AC Milan 1-1, Bologna 2-2, Frosinone 1-1 in the Coppa Italia) and a loss at Monza. Their away form in that stretch has been a 1-2 loss at Monza and a 2-2 draw at Bologna. Not exactly a side rolling out of the park.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — the only meeting within the last 12 months was that 1-1 Coppa Italia draw at Sassuolo's ground back in September. The older meetings go back to 2016 and span a decade, so I'd treat those as background noise rather than a trend. What matters is the current form and the venue records, and those point firmly to Frosinone.
The counter-argument? Well, Frosinone did get thrashed 0-3 at Napoli just six days ago, and their xG against in recent games has been running at 2.21 per game, which suggests they're conceding more than the scoreline shows. Sassuolo did hold AC Milan to a 1-1 at home, so they're not without quality. And the market has Sassuolo's win at 2.77, which isn't a huge price, so there's a view that this is closer than the home/away records suggest.
But I'm not buying it. The gap between Frosinone's home record and Sassuolo's away record is too big to ignore. Frosinone are scoring nearly 2 goals a game at home and conceding under 1. Sassuolo are scoring just over 1 away and conceding nearly 1.5. That's a mismatch.
Key Points:
- Frosinone have won 12 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.95 per game and conceding 0.9
- Sassuolo have won just 4 of their last 20 away games, scoring 1.15 per game and conceding 1.4
- Frosinone's last three home games have all been wins (2-1, 2-0, 3-2)
- Sassuolo's away form in the last five includes a loss at Monza and a draw at Bologna
- The only recent head-to-head meeting was a 1-1 draw in the Coppa Italia in September
My verdict: Frosinone home win at 2.63. The home record, the recent home wins, and Sassuolo's poor away form all point the same way. I rate this at around 48%, which sits comfortably above the market's 38% view. That's value, and I'm happy to take it.