Preview
PajimonLook, I'm from SA and I know a thing or two about a team that's got their act together at home and a team that's struggling on the road. That's exactly what we've got here, bra. Frosinone at home have won 12 of their last 20 games, scoring 1.95 per game and conceding just 0.9. Sassuolo on the road? 4 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses out of 20. That's not a team that travels well, and the numbers don't lie.
Frosinone's last three home games have been wins — 2-1 over Benevento, 2-0 to Como, and 3-2 against Venezia. They've been scoring and keeping it tight. Yes, they took a 0-3 loss at Napoli's ground on 10 October, but that's an away game against one of the biggest clubs in the country. At home, the record speaks for itself. Their last 5 across all venues is 3W 1D 1L, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded.
Sassuolo, on the other hand, have drawn three of their last five games — 1-1 with AC Milan at home on 11 October, 2-2 at Bologna, and 1-1 with Frosinone in the Coppa Italia on 2 September. They beat Juventus 3-2 at home, which is impressive, but their away record over 20 games is 4W 6D 10L. They've failed to score in 6 of those 20 away games and conceded 1.4 per game. Their last 5 is 1W 3D 1L, with 8 scored and 8 conceded.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — four older meetings spanning back to 2023 — with only one recent meeting, that 1-1 draw at Sassuolo's ground in September. So we're leaning heavily on the current home and away numbers, and those numbers say Frosinone at home is the stronger side. Frosinone score 1.95 at home, Sassuolo score 1.15 away. Frosinone concede 0.9 at home, Sassuolo concede 1.4 away. The gap is clear.
The counter-argument: Sassuolo have scored in all five of their last five games, and their last 10 shows 9 out of 10 with both teams scoring. They're not a team that shuts up. And Frosinone's 0-3 loss to Napoli, while an away game, does show they can be vulnerable on the day. The market has Sassuolo's win at 2.77, which isn't a huge price, suggesting the bookies see them as a live threat. But I'm not convinced. The home and away records over 20 games each tell a very different story from what the odds suggest.
Key Points:
- Frosinone's home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 1.95 scored per game, 0.9 conceded per game
- Sassuolo's away record: 4W 6D 10L in 20 games, 1.15 scored per game, 1.4 conceded per game
- Frosinone won their last three home games (2-1, 2-0, 3-2)
- Sassuolo have drawn 3 of their last 5 games and failed to score in 6 of 20 away games
- Head-to-head is mostly historical; only 1 recent meeting (1-1 draw at Sassuolo's ground)
My pick: Frosinone home win.