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Frosinone welcome Sassuolo to their ground on 16 October, and the venue records paint a striking picture of two teams in very different circumstances. Frosinone's home form over 20 games is 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 2.05 points per game, 1.95 goals scored per game and just 0.9 conceded. They've kept 8 clean sheets in those 20 home games and failed to score in only 1. Sassuolo's away record over 20 games tells a very different story: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses, 0.9 points per game, 1.15 scored and 1.4 conceded. They've kept just 3 clean sheets away and failed to score in 6 of those 20 games.
The recent form adds colour to that picture. Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 matches, including 2–0 against Como and 3–2 against Venezia at home, though a 0–3 defeat at Napoli on 10 October is their most recent result. Sassuolo have drawn 3 of their last 5, including a 1–1 with AC Milan on 11 October and a 2–2 at Bologna, but they lost 1–2 at Monza on 18 September. Their only win in that stretch came against Juventus 3–2 at home on 13 September.
The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–1 draw at Sassuolo's ground in Coppa Italia on 2 September. The older meetings at Frosinone's ground show 1 win and 1 loss for Frosinone, but those are historical and don't carry much weight for current form. With just one recent meeting between the sides, this fixture is really about the venue records and current shape.
Now, here's where I get a little hopeful for the little guy. Sassuolo's recent drawing habit is genuinely impressive. Three draws in five games, including against AC Milan and Bologna, suggests a team that can absorb pressure and pick up points. They scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches, and their xG against over 6 recent games is 1.23 per game, which is solid defensive numbers. The 1–1 Coppa Italia meeting six weeks ago showed the two sides can cancel each other out. There's a small underdog case here for the draw at 3.75 or for Sassuolo to grab a result at 2.77.
But I have to be honest with you, folks. The venue records are hard to ignore. Frosinone have won 12 of 20 home games while Sassuolo have won just 4 of 20 away. Frosinone's home scoring output of 1.95 per game dwarfs Sassuolo's away output of 1.15. And Frosinone have failed to score in only 1 of 20 home games, while Sassuolo have failed to score in 6 of 20 away. The draw rate from the venue records is 5 draws in 20 for Frosinone and 6 in 20 for Sassuolo, which puts the draw probability right around the market's 26.67%. I simply can't find a clear edge for any underdog outcome here. The numbers point firmly to Frosinone at home, and I'm not about to back the favourite. If there's no value in the little puppy, I'd rather walk away with my tail wagging and my bankroll intact.
Key Points:
- Frosinone's home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.05 PPG, 1.95 scored per game
- Sassuolo's away record: 4W 6D 10L in 20 games, 0.9 PPG, 1.15 scored per game
- Only one recent H2H meeting: 1–1 draw at Sassuolo's ground on 2 September
- Sassuolo have drawn 3 of their last 5 and scored in all 5
- Frosinone's last result was a 0–3 loss at Napoli on 10 October
No Bet.