Preview
Value VinnyThe numbers in this fixture tell a story the market hasn't fully priced in, and that's where the value lives.
Frosinone's home record over their last 20 games at their ground is 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. That's 2.05 points per game, 1.95 goals scored per game and just 0.9 conceded. They've kept a clean sheet in 8 of those 20 and failed to score in only 1. This is a side that wins at home with regularity and keeps opponents quiet.
Sassuolo's away record over their last 20 games tells a very different tale: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. That's 0.9 points per game, 1.15 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. They've kept a clean sheet in just 3 of those 20 and failed to score in 6. The gap between these two records — 2.05 points per game at home versus 0.9 away — is the single most important number in this fixture.
The most recent meeting between these two sides was a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo's ground in September's Coppa Italia. The head-to-head stretches back over 10 years, with older meetings at Frosinone's ground showing 4-2 and 1-2, but those are historical and don't carry the weight of current form. What matters is the present: Frosinone have won all 3 of their last 3 home games (2-1 vs Benevento, 2-0 vs Como, 3-2 vs Venezia), and their only recent loss was a 0-3 to Napoli away six days ago. Sassuolo's last 5 is 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with their sole victory coming against Juventus at home.
The counter-argument is that Sassuolo have scored in all 5 of their recent games and drew with AC Milan just 5 days ago. They're not a team that disappears on the road — they've managed a draw against Bologna away in recent weeks. And Frosinone's 0-3 loss to Napoli shows they can be exposed by quality. But the Napoli game was away, and the home record is what we're betting on. The 20-game home/away split is the most reliable evidence we have, and it points firmly to Frosinone.
Key Points:
- Frosinone's home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.05 PPG, 1.95 goals scored per game
- Sassuolo's away record: 4W 6D 10L in 20 games, 0.9 PPG, 1.15 goals scored per game
- Recent H2H: 1-1 draw at Sassuolo's ground in September (Coppa Italia)
- Frosinone have won all 3 of their last 3 home games; Sassuolo have won just 1 of their last 5
- The market prices Frosinone at 38.02%, but the home/away record gap suggests a higher true probability
The home win at 2.63 is the pick. The record gap is too large to ignore, and the market hasn't done enough to reflect it.