FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction

Right then, gather 'round. We've got a proper six-pointer at the bottom of the Bundesliga this Tuesday night. It's 18th vs 17th, FSV Mainz 05 hosting 1. FC Heidenheim. Nine points against twelve. This isn't just a football match, it's a survival fight.

Let's start with the home side. Mainz are having a right shocker of a season, let's be honest. Just one win in sixteen league games. But hold up, their recent results tell a different story to the league table. They've drawn their last two – a 2-2 at Union Berlin and a 0-0 at home to St. Pauli. And before that? They went to Bayern Munich and nicked a 2-2 draw! That's proper character. The problem is they can't buy a win. At home, they're tight at the back, conceding just 0.50 goals a game on average, but they only score 0.75. They're hard to beat but struggle to kill games off.

Now, Heidenheim. They're just above the drop zone and have actually won two of their last five league games – beating Freiburg and Union Berlin. That's decent. But blimey, their defence on the road is like a sieve. They're conceding three goals a game away from home. Three! They've let in six at Leverkusen and three at Hoffenheim recently. They've not kept a single clean sheet in their last ten outings. Zero. Zilch.

Here's the funny bit about the head-to-head. Heidenheim have had Mainz's number, especially here. Mainz have never beaten Heidenheim at home in their last two tries, losing both. The last meeting was a 2-0 win for Heidenheim back in February. So the visitors will fancy this, despite their league position.

So what's gonna happen? Mainz are at home, defensively solid, but blunt up front. Heidenheim can score on their day but leave the back door wide open. This has 1-0 or 2-0 written all over it for me. I can't see Heidenheim keeping a clean sheet with their record, but I also fancy Mainz's defence to handle Heidenheim's attack. Heidenheim have failed to score in four of their last ten, and Mainz have kept two clean sheets in their last ten.

The bookies have Mainz as favourites at 1.67, which feels a bit short given they've only won once all season. The value, in my book, lies elsewhere. Both Teams to Score 'No' is at 1.80. Given Mainz's stingy home defence and Heidenheim's patchy away attack, I reckon there's a better than 50/50 shot one of these sides blanks.

Key Points:

Massive Relegation Battle: 18th vs 17th. Three points are priceless.

Mainz's Home Fortress? Hard to beat (just one loss in last four at home) but struggle to score (0.75 goals/game).

Heidenheim's Travel Sickness: Conceding 3.00 goals per game on the road. No clean sheets in 10 games.

Head-to-Hoodoo: Heidenheim have won the last two meetings and are unbeaten at Mainz's ground.

• Trends: Mainz's form is 'improving', Heidenheim's is 'declining' – but confidence in those trends is low.

The Simple Tip: I'm leaning on the stats here. Mainz should edge a tight, nervy affair, but the smarter play for value is that at least one team doesn't find the net. I'm backing Both Teams to Score - NO at 1.80.